Dak Prescott’s 2024 Season Preview: Can He Hit His Prop Totals?

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, all eyes are on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. With the prop bets for Prescott set at 4,150.5 passing yards, 30.5 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions on DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s time to dive into the numbers and predict whether he can hit these targets.

A Look Back: Dak Prescott’s Historical Performance

Dak Prescott’s journey in the NFL has been marked by highs and lows, with seasons cut short by injuries and others where he showcased his full potential. To project his 2024 season, we need to analyze his recent performances and consider the trends in his game.

Passing Yards: Can Prescott Surpass 4,150.5 Yards?

Over the past few seasons, Prescott has shown his ability to rack up passing yards, especially when healthy:

  • 2019: 4,902 yards
  • 2021: 4,449 yards
  • 2023: 4,516 yards

In the 2022 season, Prescott was limited to just 12 games due to injury but still managed 2,860 yards. Extrapolating his 2022 performance to a full 17-game season, he would have been on pace for approximately 4,054 yards.

In 2023, Prescott threw for 4,516 yards over 17 games, averaging 265.6 yards per game. If he maintains a similar pace in 2024, he’ll comfortably surpass the 4,150.5-yard mark.

Touchdowns: Is 30.5 a Reachable Goal?

Prescott’s ability to find the end zone has varied across seasons:

  • 2019: 30 TDs
  • 2021: 37 TDs
  • 2023: 36 TDs

In 2022, Prescott’s touchdown count was lower due to missed games, with 23 TDs in 12 games. However, his touchdown rate of 5.8% was in line with his career average. In 2023, Prescott recorded 36 touchdowns, showing he can exceed the 30.5 TD mark, especially with the offensive weapons around him in Dallas.

Interceptions: Can Prescott Stay Under 9.5?

Turnovers have been a concern for Prescott, particularly in 2022, when he threw 15 interceptions in just 12 games. However, 2023 saw a significant improvement, with only 9 interceptions across 17 games.

His career interception rate of 1.9% is slightly below the league average, but his 2022 struggles highlight the volatility in this area. If Prescott can continue to protect the football as he did in 2023, staying under 9.5 interceptions is a realistic goal.

Advanced Metrics: Digging Deeper Into Prescott’s Performance

To better understand Prescott’s chances of hitting these prop totals, we must examine his advanced metrics from recent seasons:

  • Average Throw Depth (2023): 8.5 yards
  • Bad Pass Percentage (2023): 0.2%
  • Dropped Pass Rate (2023): 5.1%
  • Sack Rate (2023): 6.2%

Prescott’s 2023 performance shows a balanced attack, with a healthy average throw depth and a low bad pass percentage, indicating accuracy and decision-making improvements. The increase in sack rate compared to previous years is concerning, but if the Cowboys’ offensive line holds up, Prescott should have ample opportunities to hit his targets.

The Verdict: Will Dak Prescott Hit the Prop Totals?

Passing Yards: Over 4,150.5
Given Prescott’s ability to consistently accumulate passing yards when healthy and the Cowboys’ pass-heavy offense, hitting 4,150.5 yards seems likely. Even with a slight dip in production, Prescott’s history suggests he can surpass this mark.

Passing Touchdowns: Over 30.5
Prescott has the offensive weapons and the play-calling to surpass 30.5 touchdowns. His recent history of 36 and 37 touchdowns in full seasons makes this prop achievable, barring any significant injuries or offensive disruptions.

Interceptions: Under 9.5
This is the trickiest prop. Prescott’s turnover issues in 2022 highlight the risk, but his 2023 improvement shows he can manage the game better. If he continues to limit mistakes, staying under 9.5 interceptions is possible, but this will be a close call.

Final Thoughts

Dak Prescott enters the 2024 season with high expectations and a set of challenging prop totals to meet. While his past performance suggests he can surpass both the passing yards and touchdown thresholds, the interception prop will require disciplined play and a bit of luck. If Prescott stays healthy and the Cowboys’ offense clicks, 2024 could be another stellar year for the Dallas signal-caller.

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