Patrick Mahomes’ 2024 Season Preview: Will He Hit DraftKings Prop Totals?
As we approach the 2024 NFL season, one of the most anticipated storylines is how Patrick Mahomes will perform. The Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar quarterback is set to face lofty expectations, with DraftKings Sportsbook setting his season prop totals at 4350.5 passing yards, 34.5 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions. Let’s dive into Mahomes’ historical data and advanced metrics to analyze whether he is likely to hit or surpass these benchmarks.
Historical Performance Overview
Since taking over as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018, Mahomes has consistently been among the NFL’s elite passers. Here’s a look at his season stats from 2018 to 2023:
These statistics clearly demonstrate Mahomes’ ability to put up prolific numbers. His average performance over these six seasons yields approximately 4680 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions per year. Even when accounting for missed games, Mahomes has often exceeded the proposed passing yardage and touchdown thresholds.
Analyzing 2024 Prop Totals
Passing Yards: 4350.5
The passing yardage total set by DraftKings is slightly below Mahomes’ career average of 4680 yards. In the past, Mahomes has surpassed 4350 passing yards in four out of six seasons. Notably, his 2023 season saw a dip, with 4183 yards, but this was partly due to missing a game and dealing with a rotating cast of wide receivers.
Mahomes’ advanced metrics also point to a continued emphasis on high-volume passing:
Average Throw Depth: Between 6.7 and 9.0 yards across the last four seasons.
Bad Pass Percentage: Steadily low at around 0.2% since 2021, indicating sharp accuracy.
Sack Rate: Consistently under 4.3%, showcasing his ability to avoid negative plays.
Given the Chiefs’ offensive scheme, which continues to rely heavily on Mahomes’ arm, and assuming a relatively healthy season, it’s reasonable to predict that Mahomes will surpass 4350.5 passing yards in 2024.
Passing Touchdowns: 34.5
Mahomes has thrown for more than 34.5 touchdowns in four out of the last six seasons. His 2022 season stands out, where he led the league with 41 touchdowns. However, in 2023, he threw just 27 touchdowns, partly due to a drop in red zone efficiency and an increase in dropped passes (5.9% drop rate in 2023).
Key metrics to consider for 2024:
Red Zone Passing Efficiency: Mahomes has historically been very effective in the red zone, but a slight dip was seen in 2023 with a red zone conversion rate lower than his previous years.
Supporting Cast: The Chiefs have retooled their receiving corps, and the development of younger receivers alongside Travis Kelce will be crucial in maintaining or increasing touchdown production.
If the offensive line remains solid and Mahomes builds chemistry with his targets, 34.5 passing touchdowns is a realistic and achievable goal for him in 2024.
Interceptions: 9.5
Interceptions have been a variable statistic for Mahomes. His career-high is 14 interceptions in 2023, which marked a deviation from his typically low turnover rate. Mahomes has thrown 10 or more interceptions in just two of his six seasons as a starter.
Advanced metrics like Bad Pass Percentage (0.2% in the last three seasons) indicate that Mahomes’ decision-making remains sharp, despite the increase in picks last year. Additionally, the Chiefs’ offense often places Mahomes in situations where he needs to take calculated risks, which could contribute to a higher interception total.
However, given his track record and the likelihood of adjustments made during the offseason, it’s plausible that Mahomes can keep his interceptions under 9.5 in 2024.
Conclusion
Patrick Mahomes enters the 2024 season with high expectations, and the DraftKings prop totals reflect his potential. Based on his historical performance and advanced metrics, it’s reasonable to predict the following outcomes for Mahomes in 2024:
Passing Yards: Likely to exceed 4350.5 yards, barring injury.
Passing Touchdowns: Expected to surpass 34.5 touchdowns, especially if red zone efficiency improves.
Interceptions: Likely to stay under 9.5, assuming his decision-making remains sharp.
Mahomes remains one of the most consistent and dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, and his 2024 season should continue to reflect his elite status. Bettors considering these prop totals should factor in his historical trends, advanced metrics, and the Chiefs’ offensive adjustments when making their decisions.
