New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: Odds, Analysis & Betting Predictions

Introduction

The New York Jets (4-11) are set to face the Buffalo Bills (12-3) in a Week 17 AFC East showdown at Orchard Park, New York. While the Bills have already clinched the AFC East title and are vying for playoff positioning, the Jets aim to play spoiler and end their season on a high note. This matchup carries significant implications for the Bills’ pursuit of a top seed in the AFC.

Team Overviews

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been dominant this season, boasting a 12-3 record and an unblemished home record. Quarterback Josh Allen is a leading MVP candidate, with 14 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in 12 games against the Jets, securing eight victories. Buffalo’s offense is potent, averaging over 27 points per game, and their defense ranks among the top in the league, allowing just 17 points per game.

New York Jets

The Jets have struggled this season, holding a 4-11 record and facing challenges on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they rank near the bottom of the league in scoring and rushing yards. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on the cusp of significant milestones, needing one more touchdown pass to reach 500 and 497 passing yards over the final two games to surpass Joe Namath’s single-season Jets passing yards record. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is 13 yards shy of his third consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Betting Lines & Odds

  • Spread: Bills favored by 9.5 points
  • Moneyline: Jets +400, Bills -520
  • Over/Under: 47.5 points

The Bills are substantial favorites, reflecting their superior record and home-field advantage. The over/under suggests expectations of a moderately high-scoring game.

Injuries & Absences

The Jets have been dealing with several injuries, notably to their offensive line and receiving corps. Kicker Greg Zuerlein is expected to return after a two-month absence, which could bolster their special teams. The Bills have managed to stay relatively healthy, with no significant injuries reported for this matchup.

Key Stats & Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Jets’ last 5 games against Buffalo.
  • The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Jets’ last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.

These trends suggest a history of low-scoring games between these teams, particularly when the Jets are on the road.

Expert Analysis

Given the Bills’ offensive prowess and the Jets’ defensive struggles, Buffalo is well-positioned to control the game’s tempo. Weather conditions in Orchard Park can be unpredictable, potentially impacting both teams’ game plans. The Jets’ motivation to achieve individual milestones may influence their offensive strategy, but overcoming the Bills’ stout defense will be a formidable challenge.

Key Player Projections

  • Josh Allen (BUF): Projected to pass for 275 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
  • Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): Expected to throw for 250 yards, aiming to reach his 500th career touchdown pass.
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ): Anticipated to surpass 1,000 receiving yards for the season, needing just 13 more yards.

Final Thoughts

The Bills are favored to win and continue their dominance at home, while the Jets will look to compete and achieve individual milestones. Bettors should consider the historical trends favoring the UNDER in this matchup and the Bills’ strong performance against the spread.

For more in-depth predictive analytics and betting insights, visit Sharpest Bets.

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