Penn State vs. Boise State: Odds, Analysis & Expert Betting Picks

Introduction

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals bring an exciting matchup between the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions and the No. 3 Boise State Broncos. Scheduled for December 31, 2024, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, this game marks the first-ever meeting between these two programs. With a spot in the semifinals on the line, both teams are poised to deliver a thrilling contest.

Team Overviews

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State enters the Fiesta Bowl with a 12-2 record, showcasing a balanced attack on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they average 33.9 points per game, ranking 10th nationally, with a strong rushing attack contributing 202.6 yards per game (11th nationally). Defensively, the Nittany Lions allow just 15.9 points per game, placing them 13th in the nation, and are particularly effective against the run, conceding only 102.7 rushing yards per game (13th nationally). Their pass defense is also formidable, allowing 179.6 yards per game (27th nationally), and they have accumulated 37 sacks (10th nationally) and 15 interceptions (5th nationally) this season.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos boast a 12-1 record, propelled by a high-powered offense that averages 39.1 points per game, ranking 4th nationally. Their rushing attack is a standout, averaging 252.6 yards per game (4th nationally), largely due to the efforts of Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, who has amassed 2,497 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns this season. Defensively, Boise State allows 21.9 points per game (35th nationally) and is particularly adept at pressuring quarterbacks, recording 51 sacks (2nd nationally). However, their pass defense has shown vulnerability, allowing 246.8 yards per game (137th nationally).

Betting Lines & Odds

As of December 30, 2024, the betting lines for the Fiesta Bowl are as follows:

  • Point Spread: Penn State favored by 11 points.
  • Moneyline: Penn State -450; Boise State +350.
  • Over/Under (Total): 53.5 points.

These lines suggest that bookmakers expect Penn State to win by a significant margin, with a moderately high-scoring game anticipated.

Injuries & Absences

Both teams have reported minimal injuries leading up to the game. Penn State has a few players listed as questionable, including wide receiver Kaden Saunders and safety Tyrece Mills, but no significant absences are expected. Boise State appears to have a healthy roster, with no major injuries reported. It’s advisable to check for any last-minute updates before placing bets.

Key Stats & Trends

  • Penn State is 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Boise State is 2-2-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The total has gone over in Penn State’s last three road games.
  • Boise State’s pass defense ranks 137th nationally, which could be a focal point for Penn State’s offensive strategy.

Expert Analysis

This matchup features Boise State’s potent rushing attack against Penn State’s stout run defense. The performance of Ashton Jeanty will be crucial for the Broncos, as he needs 132 yards to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record.

On the other side, Penn State’s quarterback Drew Allar will look to exploit Boise State’s vulnerable secondary, potentially connecting with tight end Tyler Warren, a key target in their passing game. The battle in the trenches, particularly Boise State’s offensive line against Penn State’s defensive front, will play a significant role in determining the game’s outcome.

Key Player Projections

  • Ashton Jeanty (Boise State): Projected to rush for over 130 yards, aiming to break the single-season rushing record.
  • Drew Allar (Penn State): Expected to pass for approximately 315 yards, capitalizing on Boise State’s pass defense weaknesses.
  • Tyler Warren (Penn State): Anticipated to be a significant contributor in the passing game, especially in red-zone situations.

Final Thoughts

The Fiesta Bowl presents a compelling clash between Boise State’s dynamic offense and Penn State’s disciplined defense. While Penn State is favored, Boise State’s underdog mentality and explosive playmakers could make this a closer contest than anticipated. Bettors should consider the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, particularly Boise State’s rushing prowess and Penn State’s defensive capabilities, when making their wagers.

For more in-depth predictive analytics and betting insights, visit our matchup page.

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