Overview of Matchup
The 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl features a compelling rematch between the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) and the Michigan Wolverines (7-5). Scheduled for December 31 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, this game rekindles the rivalry from last season’s Rose Bowl, where Michigan triumphed 27-20 in overtime.
Alabama enters the bowl season after narrowly missing the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, positioning them as the first team out despite a strong 9-3 record. Under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide have demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout the season. Michigan, also under new leadership with head coach Sherrone Moore, concluded their regular season at 7-5, highlighted by a significant upset over Ohio State.
Statistical Analysis
Alabama boasts a robust offense, averaging 35.5 points per game, ranking them 20th nationally. Their rushing attack contributes significantly with 184.8 yards per game, complemented by a passing game that adds 240.5 yards per contest. Defensively, the Crimson Tide allow 17.2 points per game, showcasing a balanced and formidable unit.
Michigan, on the other hand, has faced challenges on offense, averaging just 22.3 points per game, placing them 111th nationally. Their passing game has been particularly limited, averaging 133.6 yards per game, which ranks near the bottom nationally. However, defensively, Michigan has been solid, allowing 20.5 points per game, indicating a unit capable of keeping games competitive.
Injury Reports and Player Availability
Michigan faces significant roster challenges due to several key players opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Notable absences include All-American defensive tackle Mason Graham, cornerback Will Johnson, defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, and tight end Colston Loveland. Additionally, running backs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, along with offensive lineman Myles Hinton, will miss the game.
Alabama will be without All-SEC defensive back Malachi Moore due to injury. However, the Crimson Tide have largely retained their core lineup, providing them with a continuity advantage.
Betting Lines and Odds Movement
As of December 31, Alabama is favored by 14.5 points over Michigan, with an over/under set at 44.5 points. The moneyline odds list Alabama at -633 and Michigan at +462. The spread has seen some movement as betting lines adjusted throughout the week.
Trends and Historical Angles
- Alabama is 8-4 ATS this season, including a 4-2 mark in games where they are favored by double digits.
- Michigan has struggled ATS, going 5-7 on the year, with a 1-3 record as underdogs.
- The under has hit in 7 of Alabama’s last 10 games, reflecting their strong defensive efforts.
- In their last five head-to-head matchups, Alabama has a 3-2 edge both SU and ATS.
Final Thoughts
This game represents a clash of styles, with Alabama’s high-powered offense going up against Michigan’s gritty defense. The Wolverines face a tall task given their significant opt-outs, particularly on the defensive line. Alabama’s continuity and overall talent advantage make them the clear favorite, but Michigan’s ability to control the clock and force turnovers could keep this closer than expected. Expect a hard-fought contest with significant implications for both programs heading into 2024.
