Capital One Orange Bowl – January 9, 2025
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Overview of Matchup
This highly anticipated clash between Notre Dame and Penn State marks the 20th meeting in their storied rivalry, with the all-time series tied at 9-9-1. Their last encounter came in 2007, where Penn State emerged victorious, 31-10.
Notre Dame enters the semifinal with a 13-1 record, highlighted by a dominant 23-10 win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Penn State, boasting a 13-2 record, advanced after a commanding 31-14 victory against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Statistical Analysis
Notre Dame
- Offense: 38.8 points per game, led by quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love, who has tallied 1,076 rushing yards.
- Defense: Second nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 13.6 points per game.
Penn State
- Offense: 33.7 points per game, with quarterback Drew Allar and running back Kaytron Allen, who has rushed for 1,026 yards, at the helm.
- Defense: Conceding 15.8 points per game, showcasing a disciplined and resilient unit.
Injury Reports and Player Availability
- Notre Dame: Running back Jeremiyah Love is expected to play despite a recent knee issue.
- Penn State: Defensive end Abdul Carter remains questionable due to a recent injury.
Betting Lines and Odds Movement
- Spread: Notre Dame favored by 1.5 points.
- Over/Under: 45.5 points.
Trends and Historical Angles
- Against the Spread (ATS): Notre Dame has excelled ATS, particularly after victories.
- Over/Under Patterns: Both teams lean towards the under in matchups involving strong defensive units.
- Head-to-Head: The all-time series is evenly split, adding historical intrigue to this playoff matchup.
Key Matchups
- Notre Dame’s Offensive Line vs. Penn State’s Defensive Front: The ability of Notre Dame’s line to protect Riley Leonard and create lanes for Jeremiyah Love will be pivotal. Penn State’s defensive impact could be hindered if Abdul Carter is unable to play.
- Penn State’s Passing Attack vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary: Drew Allar must find ways to exploit Notre Dame’s formidable pass defense to keep Penn State competitive.
Data-Driven Insights
- Notre Dame ranks second nationally in scoring defense, allowing 13.6 points per game.
- Penn State’s offense thrives on efficiency, averaging 33.7 points per game despite tough competition.
Key Player Insights
- Notre Dame: Quarterback Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability, coupled with running back Jeremiyah Love’s versatility, has powered the Irish offense.
- Penn State: Drew Allar’s precision and Kaytron Allen’s consistency on the ground provide balance to Penn State’s attack.
Best Bets and Projections
For premium betting insights, including in-depth analysis and game projections, visit sharpestbets.com/cfb-best-bets.
Final Thoughts
This College Football Playoff semifinal promises to be a nail-biter. Both teams bring elite defenses and balanced offenses, making every possession critical. Key matchups in the trenches and the health of standout players like Abdul Carter could swing the result.
With Notre Dame slightly favored and the over/under set at 45.5, bettors should focus on defensive trends and player availability before placing their wagers.
