Kirk Cousins’ 2024 Preview: Can He Thrive in a New System?

Kirk Cousins, one of the NFL’s most reliable quarterbacks, faced a challenging 2023 season with the Minnesota Vikings. Despite a strong start, his season was cut short due to injury, marking a significant turning point in his career. As he prepares to join the Atlanta Falcons in 2024, there’s much anticipation around how he will perform with a new team. In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll recap Cousins’ 2023 season with the Vikings, dive into his projected performance with the Falcons, and examine his season prop totals via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2023 Season Recap: A Rollercoaster Year in Minnesota

Kirk Cousins entered the 2023 season with high expectations. Known for his consistency and durability, Cousins was set to lead a Vikings team aiming to make a deep playoff run. However, his season was abruptly ended by an Achilles injury in Week 8, cutting his campaign short after just eight games.

Statistical Overview

Before his injury, Cousins was on pace to have another stellar season:

  • Games Played: 8
  • Pass Attempts: 311
  • Completions: 216
  • Completion Percentage: 69.5%
  • Passing Yards: 2,331
  • Passing Touchdowns: 18
  • Interceptions: 5
  • Average Yards Per Attempt: 7.5
  • Sack Rate: 5.2%

These numbers highlight Cousins’ efficiency and effectiveness, particularly his impressive 69.5% completion rate, which was on track to be one of the best of his career. He was also on pace to throw over 4,600 yards and 36 touchdowns if he had played the full season, exceeding the expectations set by his prop totals on DraftKings.

Advanced Metrics

Looking deeper into his performance, Cousins’ advanced metrics further demonstrate his elite quarterback play:

  • Bad Pass Percentage: 0.1% (lowest of his career)
  • Drop Rate: 5.8% (highest of his career, indicating issues with receiver drops)
  • Average Throw Depth: 7.8 yards
  • Yards After Catch per Completion: 4.8 yards

These advanced stats underline Cousins’ accuracy and decision-making, as well as some of the challenges he faced, such as receiver drops, which impacted his overall numbers.

2024 Season Outlook: A New Chapter with the Falcons

As Cousins transitions to the Atlanta Falcons in 2024, there’s a mix of excitement and uncertainty. The Falcons have been searching for stability at the quarterback position, and Cousins brings a wealth of experience and proven success. However, transitioning to a new team and system always comes with its challenges.

Projected Performance in Atlanta

The Falcons’ offense is expected to be a good fit for Cousins. With a solid offensive line and a group of talented young receivers, including Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Cousins should have the tools he needs to succeed.

DraftKings Sportsbook Prop Totals

DraftKings has set the following prop totals for Cousins’ 2024 season:

  • Passing Yards: 3,900.5
  • Passing Touchdowns: 27.5
  • Interceptions: 8.5

Given Cousins’ historical performance and the Falcons’ offensive system, let’s break down these prop totals:

  1. Passing Yards (3,900.5): If Cousins plays a full 17-game season, averaging 230 passing yards per game would easily surpass this total. Considering his career average of over 250 yards per game and the talent around him, Cousins has a strong chance of exceeding 4,000 yards, making the over a plausible bet.
  2. Passing Touchdowns (27.5): Cousins has consistently thrown for 25+ touchdowns in recent seasons, and with the Falcons’ red-zone threats, 28-30 touchdowns is a realistic expectation. Therefore, betting the over on touchdowns also seems like a favorable choice.
  3. Interceptions (8.5): Cousins has had a relatively low interception rate throughout his career, and with a supportive offensive scheme in Atlanta, he could keep his interceptions under 9. However, this is perhaps the riskiest of the prop bets, as a new system and increased passing volume could lead to more turnovers.

Challenges and Opportunities

One of the key challenges Cousins will face in Atlanta is adapting to a new offensive coordinator and play-calling style. However, Cousins has proven to be a quick learner in the past, and his experience should help him make a smooth transition. The Falcons’ offensive line will also play a crucial role in his success, as consistent protection will allow him to exploit his deep passing abilities.

Historical Context and Career Overview

Kirk Cousins has built a reputation as one of the most consistent and accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. Over his career, he has consistently ranked among the league leaders in completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdown passes. Here’s a quick overview of his recent seasons:

  • 2022 (Minnesota): 4,547 yards, 29 TDs, 14 INTs
  • 2021 (Minnesota): 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs
  • 2020 (Minnesota): 4,265 yards, 35 TDs, 13 INTs

These stats reflect Cousins’ ability to produce at a high level year after year, despite changes in coaching, personnel, and competition. As he moves to Atlanta, he brings with him this wealth of experience and a proven track record of success.

Conclusion: What to Expect in 2024

Kirk Cousins’ 2024 season with the Atlanta Falcons is shaping up to be a pivotal year in his career. With a fresh start and a talented supporting cast, Cousins has the potential to lead the Falcons to playoff contention. The prop totals set by DraftKings seem well within reach, especially given his historical performance and the offensive weapons in Atlanta.

While challenges such as adapting to a new system and staying healthy remain, Cousins has consistently demonstrated resilience and skill throughout his career. Falcons fans have much to look forward to, and Cousins could be the key to unlocking their offense’s full potential in 2024.

As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on Kirk Cousins to see if he can once again prove his doubters wrong and lead his new team to success. Whether you’re a fan, a fantasy football player, or a bettor, 2024 promises to be an exciting year for Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons.

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