Tua Tagovailoa: 2023 Season Recap and 2024 Betting Preview

Introduction

Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins’ star quarterback, has been at the center of the franchise’s resurgence over the past few seasons. After being drafted fifth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua has faced his share of challenges and criticisms. However, his 2023 season showed glimpses of the elite potential that many saw in him during his college days at Alabama. As we look back on Tua’s 2023 season and preview what’s ahead for him in 2024, it’s clear that the young quarterback is poised to continue his upward trajectory.

2023 Season Recap

In 2023, Tua Tagovailoa played in all 17 regular-season games, a notable achievement considering his injury history. He threw for a career-high 4,624 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His completion percentage of 69.3% was a testament to his improved accuracy and decision-making. Tua’s average yards per attempt (8.3) and average throw depth (8.0) indicated a willingness to push the ball downfield more often, a stark contrast to the conservative approach he took early in his career.

Tua’s performance in 2023 was marked by several standout games, including a Week 1 explosion against the Los Angeles Chargers where he threw for 466 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite some mid-season struggles, including a tough outing against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, Tua remained resilient, leading the Dolphins to a playoff berth.

Advanced Metrics Breakdown

Tua’s 2023 season wasn’t just about the basic stats. His advanced metrics provide a deeper understanding of his growth as a quarterback:

  • Bad Pass Percentage: Tua had a remarkably low bad pass percentage of 0.2%, matching his 2021 and 2022 seasons. This shows a consistent ability to make accurate throws and avoid costly mistakes.
  • Dropped Pass Rate: With a dropped pass rate of 4.6%, Tua dealt with a few missed opportunities by his receivers but still managed to maintain high efficiency.
  • Sack Rate: His sack rate of 4.9% was slightly lower than in previous seasons, reflecting both improved offensive line play and Tua’s ability to get the ball out quickly.
  • Yards After Catch (YAC): Tua’s average pass YAC of 5.8 yards was the highest of his career, indicating that his receivers were making plays after the catch, a crucial factor in the Dolphins’ dynamic offense.

DraftKings Sportsbook Prop Analysis for 2024

As we shift our focus to 2024, Tua’s projected season prop totals via DraftKings Sportsbook set the stage for an exciting year. The sportsbook sets the over/under lines at 4,100.5 passing yards, 25.5 passing touchdowns, and 10.5 interceptions. Let’s break down these projections:

  1. Passing Yards (4,100.5):
    • Tua surpassed this mark in 2023 with 4,624 passing yards. If he remains healthy and continues to develop chemistry with his receiving corps, surpassing 4,100 yards again seems highly likely. The Dolphins’ offense, under the guidance of head coach Mike McDaniel, emphasizes a high-octane passing attack, and with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua has the tools to exceed expectations.
  2. Passing Touchdowns (25.5):
    • Tua threw 29 touchdowns in 2023, and with another year in the system, he could easily hit the over on 25.5 touchdowns in 2024. His red zone efficiency has steadily improved, and the Dolphins have bolstered their offensive line to give Tua more time to operate.
  3. Interceptions (10.5):
    • The 14 interceptions Tua threw in 2023 were a career-high, but it’s important to consider the context. Several of these interceptions came in high-pressure situations where Tua was forced to take risks. With continued growth and better protection, it’s plausible that Tua could keep his interceptions under 10.5 in 2024.

2024 Season Outlook

Heading into 2024, Tua Tagovailoa has every reason to be optimistic. The Dolphins have made strategic moves to strengthen their roster, including upgrading the offensive line and adding depth at the receiver and running back positions. With a more balanced attack, Tua could see even better protection and more opportunities to showcase his arm talent.

Tua’s leadership and poise will be crucial as the Dolphins aim to contend for the AFC East title and make a deep playoff run. His ability to stay healthy and maintain consistency will determine how far this team can go. If Tua can continue to build on his 2023 success and hit the over on his prop totals, the Dolphins could be one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL.

Conclusion

Tua Tagovailoa’s 2023 season was a significant step forward in his development as a franchise quarterback. With impressive stats, advanced metrics, and a solid supporting cast, Tua is primed for a breakout year in 2024. As fans and analysts alike keep a close eye on his performance, there’s no doubt that Tua has the potential to exceed expectations and lead the Miami Dolphins to new heights.

Whether you’re betting on his season totals or simply following his journey, Tua’s 2024 season promises to be one of the most exciting storylines in the NFL. Keep an eye on the prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, as Tua could be a valuable asset for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on his continued growth.

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