C.J. Stroud’s Rookie Season Recap and 2024 Outlook
C.J. Stroud entered the NFL with immense expectations after a stellar college career at Ohio State, and his rookie season with the Houston Texans in 2023 did not disappoint. He displayed poise, leadership, and a remarkable ability to adapt to the professional level, making him one of the standout rookies of the season. As we look ahead to his 2024 campaign, it’s essential to analyze his rookie performance and forecast what might be in store based on his development and the Texans’ evolving offense.
2023 Rookie Season Overview
Stroud played 15 games in his rookie season, throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. His performance was characterized by a mature approach to the game, demonstrating accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays both in and out of the pocket.
Pass Attempts: 499
Completions: 319
Completion Percentage: 63.9%
Yards per Attempt: 8.2
20+ Yard Passes: 66
40+ Yard Passes: 9
Sack Rate: 7.1%
Rushing: 39 attempts, 167 yards, 3 touchdowns
Stroud’s ability to limit turnovers (just 5 interceptions) was a key aspect of his success. His bad pass percentage was an impressively low 0.2%, indicating that he rarely made poor decisions under pressure. Additionally, despite being sacked 38 times, his average throw depth of 9.1 yards showcases his willingness to push the ball downfield.
One area where Stroud could improve is his handling of pressure, as evidenced by his 7.1% sack rate. However, considering the Texans’ offensive line struggles, this is a promising foundation for a young quarterback.
Advanced Metrics Breakdown
Stroud’s advanced metrics from the 2023 season provide deeper insights into his performance:
Dropped Passes: 22 (4.4% dropped rate)
Yards After Catch (YAC) Per Completion: 5.6
Broken Tackles: 2 (5.1% broken tackle rate)
Positive Run Percentage: 82.1%
Rush Yards After Contact: 50 (1.3 per attempt)
Stroud benefited from solid YAC from his receivers, but his ability to create plays on his own was equally impressive. His positive run percentage of 82.1% indicates that he made smart decisions when opting to run, often gaining positive yardage and helping to keep drives alive.
2024 Season Preview
Looking ahead to 2024, the expectations for Stroud are understandably high. The DraftKings Sportsbook has set his season prop totals at 4,150.5 passing yards, 28.5 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions. These projections reflect the confidence in Stroud’s continued development as a passer and leader of the Texans’ offense.
Passing Yards Prop: 4,150.5
Stroud is well-positioned to surpass this total, given his 2023 performance where he threw for 4,108 yards in 15 games. With a full 17-game schedule and the potential for improvement in the Texans’ offensive line and receiving corps, 4,150.5 yards is a realistic benchmark.
Passing Touchdowns Prop: 28.5
In 2023, Stroud threw 23 touchdown passes, and with the Texans expected to add more weapons around him, 28.5 touchdowns in 2024 seems achievable. His red zone efficiency, where he had a 4.6% touchdown rate, will be crucial in determining whether he can hit this target.
Interceptions Prop: 9.5
Stroud’s ability to protect the football was a hallmark of his rookie season, throwing just 5 interceptions. However, with a higher volume of passes expected in 2024, the 9.5 interception mark could be close. Stroud’s decision-making under pressure will be key to staying under this total.
Factors Influencing Stroud’s 2024 Performance
Offensive Line Improvement: The Texans’ offensive line needs to protect Stroud better, reducing the 38 sacks he endured in 2023. Improved pass protection will allow Stroud to stay upright and make plays downfield.
Receiving Corps Development: The growth of young receivers like Nico Collins and Tank Dell will be critical in Stroud’s development. A more potent passing attack with the addition of Stefon Diggs will help Stroud hit his passing yards and touchdown prop totals.
Coaching Stability: Continuity in the coaching staff and offensive scheme will benefit Stroud in his second year. Any changes in offensive philosophy could impact his performance, either positively or negatively.
Stroud’s Progression: The natural progression from a rookie to a second-year quarterback often comes with better understanding and anticipation of defenses. Stroud’s offseason work and ability to learn from his rookie mistakes will be pivotal.
Conclusion
C.J. Stroud’s rookie season was a resounding success, setting the stage for what could be an even more impressive sophomore campaign. With the Texans continuing to build around him, Stroud is primed to take another step forward in 2024. Whether he surpasses his prop totals will depend on several factors, including team improvements and his own development. However, the foundation he’s laid suggests that Stroud has the potential to become one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks in the near future. Texans fans have every reason to be excited about what the future holds with Stroud under center.
