Deshaun Watson: 2023 Season Recap and 2024 Betting Outlook
Introduction
Deshaun Watson’s journey in the NFL has been nothing short of eventful, marked by remarkable highs and challenging lows. After a tumultuous period off the field and a significant absence from play, Watson returned to the NFL with the Cleveland Browns in 2022. While 2023 was supposed to be the year he fully reintegrated into the league, the season proved to be a mixed bag for the former Pro Bowl quarterback. This article recaps Watson’s 2023 season and previews his prospects for 2024, including an in-depth analysis of his season prop totals via DraftKings Sportsbook: 3300.5 passing yards, 19.5 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions.
2023 Season Recap
Deshaun Watson’s 2023 season was characterized by inconsistency, with moments of brilliance overshadowed by periods of struggle. Despite the anticipation surrounding his return, Watson played in just six games due to injuries, posting the following stats:
Passing Yards: 1,115
Passing Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 4
Completion Percentage: 61.4%
Passer Rating: 84.3
Watson’s performance in 2023 was marred by a combination of rust from his extended absence and difficulty in adapting to the Browns’ offensive system. His passer rating of 84.3 was a far cry from the elite numbers he posted during his peak years in Houston. Furthermore, Watson’s completion percentage of 61.4% was among the lowest of his career, highlighting the challenges he faced in finding rhythm with his receivers.
Watson’s average throw depth of 9.3 yards in 2023 suggested that he was still willing to take deep shots, but his average pass YAC (Yards After Catch) of 5.0 yards reflected a lack of explosive plays down the field. Additionally, his bad pass percentage of 0.2% was an improvement, but the drop rate of 8.8% by his receivers hindered his ability to sustain drives and build momentum.
Comparing 2023 to Previous Seasons
When juxtaposed with his performance in previous seasons, particularly his standout 2020 season in Houston, the drop-off is stark. In 2020, Watson led the league in passing yards with 4,823, threw 33 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions, and boasted an impressive passer rating of 112.4. His completion percentage of 70.2% and average throw depth of 8.9 yards indicated a quarterback in full command of his game, spreading the ball effectively and efficiently.
However, Watson’s sack rate in 2023 remained concerning at 9.0%, indicating persistent issues with holding onto the ball too long or a lack of protection from his offensive line—similar to his career-high sack rate of 10.5% in 2022. This is a crucial area that both Watson and the Browns will need to address moving forward.
2024 Season Preview: Expectations and Prop Bets Analysis
As Deshaun Watson heads into the 2024 season, expectations are cautiously optimistic. The Browns are hopeful that a full offseason with the team, combined with improved health and familiarity with the system, will allow Watson to return to form.
Passing Yards Prop: 3300.5 Yards
DraftKings has set Watson’s passing yards prop for 2024 at 3300.5 yards. Given his career trajectory and assuming he stays healthy, this is an achievable target. However, considering his output in 2023, where he averaged approximately 185.8 passing yards per game, Watson would need to play a full season at that pace to surpass this total.
If Watson can recapture even a fraction of his 2020 form, where he averaged 301.4 passing yards per game, he could easily surpass this mark. The key will be his ability to connect on deep throws and his receivers’ ability to make plays after the catch, areas where the Browns will need to see improvement.
Passing Touchdowns Prop: 19.5 Touchdowns
Watson’s passing touchdowns prop is set at 19.5 touchdowns. In 2023, he threw 7 touchdowns in six games, averaging just over one touchdown per game. To surpass this prop, Watson would need to average around 1.15 touchdowns per game over a full 17-game season.
Historically, Watson has shown the ability to put up big touchdown numbers, evidenced by his 33 touchdown passes in 2020. For him to exceed 19.5 touchdowns in 2024, the Browns will need more consistent red zone efficiency and better chemistry between Watson and his receiving corps.
Interceptions Prop: 9.5 Interceptions
DraftKings has set Watson’s interceptions prop at 9.5 interceptions. Watson threw 4 interceptions in six games in 2023, which would project to around 11 interceptions over a full season. However, this was not representative of his earlier career, where he was known for taking care of the football, as seen in 2020 when he threw just 7 interceptions over 16 games.
For 2024, much will depend on Watson’s decision-making and whether he can reduce risky throws. With more time in the Browns’ system, it is reasonable to expect improvement in this area, potentially keeping his interception total under 10 for the season.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
Deshaun Watson’s 2024 season will be pivotal for both his career and the Cleveland Browns. While 2023 was a challenging year, the upcoming season offers an opportunity for redemption. With the Browns possessing a solid offensive line, a strong running game, and a receiving corps that has the potential to be explosive, the pieces are in place for Watson to succeed.
If Watson can stay healthy, improve his chemistry with his receivers, and adapt further to the Browns’ system, he could surpass his prop totals in passing yards and touchdowns while keeping his interceptions in check. The potential is there for Watson to re-establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but the pressure will be on him to deliver.
As the 2024 season approaches, all eyes will be on Watson to see if he can return to the form that once made him one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL.
