Joe Burrow 2024 Season Preview: Can the Bengals QB Reach His Betting Prop Totals?
As the Cincinnati Bengals gear up for the 2024 NFL season, all eyes are on quarterback Joe Burrow, who has established himself as one of the elite passers in the league. Burrow’s journey from a promising rookie to a Super Bowl contender has been nothing short of remarkable. However, the 2024 season presents new challenges and expectations. DraftKings Sportsbook has set Burrow’s season prop totals at 4000.5 passing yards, 28.5 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions. Let’s dive deep into his historical performance, analyze his strengths and weaknesses, and predict whether Burrow will surpass these totals.
A Look Back: Joe Burrow’s Career So Far
2020 Season: Promising Start Cut Short
Burrow’s rookie season in 2020 was off to a strong start before a devastating knee injury ended his campaign after just 10 games. Despite the injury, Burrow showed promise with 2,688 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His 65.3% completion rate demonstrated his accuracy, even as a rookie. However, a 7.3% sack rate highlighted the need for better offensive line protection.
Key Stats:
Passing Yards: 2,688
Touchdowns: 13
Interceptions: 5
Sack Rate: 7.3%
2021 Season: Burrow’s Breakout Year
In 2021, Burrow returned with a vengeance. He led the Bengals to the Super Bowl, throwing for 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Burrow’s 70.4% completion rate was among the best in the league, and he significantly improved his ability to stretch the field, with an average throw depth of 8.5 yards. However, his 8.9% sack rate remained a concern.
Key Stats:
Passing Yards: 4,611
Touchdowns: 34
Interceptions: 14
Sack Rate: 8.9%
2022 Season: Continued Excellence
The 2022 season saw Burrow continue to excel, throwing for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He improved his sack rate to 6.3%, showing growth in his pocket awareness and decision-making. Burrow’s ability to lead the Bengals to another deep playoff run solidified his status as a top-tier quarterback.
Key Stats:
Passing Yards: 4,475
Touchdowns: 35
Interceptions: 12
Sack Rate: 6.3%
2023 Season: A Step Backward
The 2023 season was a challenging one for Burrow. He played in only 10 games due to injuries, accumulating 2,309 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His 66.8% completion rate was solid, but his average throw depth dropped to 6.5 yards, indicating a more conservative approach. Additionally, his sack rate slightly improved to 6.2%, but the offense struggled to find consistency.
Key Stats:
Passing Yards: 2,309
Touchdowns: 15
Interceptions: 6
Sack Rate: 6.2%
Analyzing the 2024 Season Prop Totals
Passing Yards: 4000.5
To predict whether Burrow can surpass 4,000 passing yards in 2024, we must consider his historical performance and the Bengals’ offensive strategy. Burrow has surpassed this mark in both of his full seasons (2021 and 2022), and the Bengals’ offense is built around his arm talent. Assuming he remains healthy, Burrow is well-equipped to exceed 4,000 yards. However, the key will be the performance of his offensive line and the availability of his top receiving targets, such as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Prediction: Over 4000.5 passing yards.
Passing Touchdowns: 28.5
Burrow has demonstrated a consistent ability to find the end zone, throwing for 34 and 35 touchdowns in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The Bengals’ red zone efficiency has been strong, and with the dynamic playmakers around him, Burrow should have no trouble reaching 29 touchdowns. His chemistry with Chase and Higgins, combined with the addition of new offensive weapons, makes this total achievable.
Prediction: Over 28.5 passing touchdowns.
Interceptions: 9.5
Burrow has been relatively careful with the football throughout his career, although he has had double-digit interception seasons in the past. However, as he matures and gains more experience, his decision-making is expected to improve. With a stronger offensive line and a more balanced offensive attack, Burrow should be able to keep his interceptions under 10.
Prediction: Under 9.5 interceptions.
Key Factors for Success in 2024
1. Offensive Line Play
The Bengals’ offensive line has been a point of concern throughout Burrow’s career. Improvements in this area will be crucial for Burrow to stay healthy and productive. A lower sack rate not only protects Burrow but also keeps drives alive, increasing his chances of surpassing his prop totals.
2. Health and Availability
Burrow’s ability to stay healthy is the most critical factor in determining whether he can reach these prop totals. After missing significant time in both 2020 and 2023, staying on the field for all 17 games will be essential.
3. Supporting Cast
The presence of elite receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, along with a reliable running game from Zack Moss and Chase Brown, provides Burrow with the tools he needs to succeed. The development of secondary targets and the incorporation of tight ends and running backs in the passing game will also play a role.
Conclusion
Joe Burrow’s 2024 season is poised to be another chapter in his already impressive career. While health remains the biggest variable, Burrow has the talent, intelligence, and supporting cast to exceed his DraftKings Sportsbook prop totals. Expect Burrow to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 28.5 passing touchdowns while keeping his interceptions under 9.5, solidifying his status as one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL.
For bettors and fantasy football players alike, Joe Burrow’s 2024 season promises to be an exciting one. Stay tuned as the season unfolds, and Burrow continues to lead the Bengals on their quest for a Super Bowl.
