Previewing Lamar Jackson’s 2024 Season: Will He Hit His Prop Totals?
Lamar Jackson enters the 2024 NFL season with high expectations, as fans and analysts alike anticipate how the dynamic quarterback will perform. The DraftKings Sportsbook has set season prop totals for Jackson at 3,250.5 passing yards, 22.5 passing touchdowns, 675.5 rushing yards, 4.5 rushing touchdowns, and 9.5 interceptions. This comprehensive preview will analyze Jackson’s historical performance and provide predictions on whether he will surpass these prop totals.
Passing Yards: 3,250.5
Lamar Jackson’s passing ability has been a focal point of his development over the years. In 2023, Jackson threw for 3,678 yards, his career-high, over 16 games. This performance suggests that surpassing the 3,250.5-yard mark in 2024 is attainable, especially if he maintains a similar level of play.
Historical Data: Jackson’s passing yards have seen fluctuations throughout his career. In 2022, he threw for 2,242 yards over 12 games, averaging 186.8 yards per game. However, in 2023, he increased his average to 229.9 yards per game, showcasing improved accuracy and consistency.
Prediction: Assuming Jackson plays a full 17-game season, he would need to average around 191.2 yards per game to surpass the 3,250.5-yard mark. Given his upward trend in passing yards, particularly in 2023, Jackson is likely to exceed this total, barring any significant injuries or setbacks.
Passing Touchdowns: 22.5
Jackson’s ability to find the end zone through the air has been somewhat inconsistent, but his 2023 season provided a positive outlook.
Historical Data: Jackson threw 24 touchdown passes in 2023, averaging 1.5 touchdowns per game. In 2022, he threw 17 touchdowns over 12 games, an average of 1.42 touchdowns per game.
Prediction: To exceed the 22.5 touchdown mark, Jackson needs to maintain an average of 1.32 touchdowns per game over a 17-game season. Given his 2023 performance and the improvements in the Ravens’ receiving corps, Jackson is projected to surpass this total.
Rushing Yards: 675.5
Lamar Jackson is known for his dual-threat ability, making his rushing yardage a crucial part of his game. However, the question remains whether he can continue to produce at a high level on the ground.
Historical Data: In 2023, Jackson rushed for 821 yards, averaging 51.3 yards per game. Over his career, Jackson has consistently surpassed the 675.5-yard mark, with his lowest total being 695 yards in 2018 when he started just seven games.
Prediction: Jackson would need to average approximately 39.7 rushing yards per game to exceed the 675.5-yard mark. Given his career average and 2023 performance, Jackson is expected to surpass this total with relative ease.
Rushing Touchdowns: 4.5
Jackson’s rushing touchdowns are another vital component of his overall production.
Historical Data: In 2023, Jackson scored five rushing touchdowns, while in 2022, he had three rushing touchdowns in 12 games. His highest total came in 2019 when he scored seven rushing touchdowns.
Prediction: Jackson needs just five rushing touchdowns to surpass this prop. Given his ability to score in short-yardage situations and the Ravens’ reliance on his legs in the red zone, Jackson is likely to exceed this mark in 2024.
Interceptions: 9.5
One area of concern for Jackson has been his interception rate. In 2024, avoiding double-digit interceptions will be crucial for both his success and the Ravens’ playoff aspirations.
Historical Data: Jackson threw seven interceptions in 2023, an improvement from the 13 interceptions he threw in 2021. His career interception percentage has generally hovered around 2.0%.
Prediction: If Jackson maintains his improved decision-making from 2023, he should be able to stay under the 9.5 interception total. However, this is one of the more challenging props, as a few off games could push him over the threshold.
Final Verdict
Based on Lamar Jackson’s historical data and recent trends, he is likely to surpass the prop totals for passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns in 2024. The interception prop is more uncertain, but if Jackson continues to improve his accuracy and decision-making, he could stay under the 9.5 mark. Fans and bettors should keep a close eye on Jackson’s performance throughout the season, as his ability to exceed these prop totals will play a significant role in the Ravens’ success.
