Josh Allen’s 2024 Season Preview: Can He Hit His Prop Totals?
As the 2024 NFL season approaches, the spotlight is once again on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Known for his strong arm, mobility, and fearless playmaking, Allen has established himself as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. With DraftKings Sportsbook setting his season prop totals at 3,750.5 passing yards, 27.5 passing touchdowns, and 12.5 interceptions, bettors are eager to assess whether Allen will hit these marks. Let’s dive deep into Allen’s historical performance and evaluate his chances of meeting or exceeding these expectations.
1. Passing Yards: Over/Under 3,750.5
Historical Performance:
2020: 4,544 yards (16 games)
2021: 4,407 yards (17 games)
2022: 4,283 yards (16 games)
2023: 4,306 yards (17 games)
Over the past four seasons, Allen has consistently surpassed the 3,750.5 passing yard mark, averaging 4,385 yards per season. His ability to rack up yards is supported by his deep passing game, where he has averaged a throw depth of around 8.5 to 9.3 yards over these years. Additionally, his average yards after catch (YAC) for his receivers has steadily improved, reaching 5.3 yards in 2023, indicating that his targets are gaining more ground post-catch.
2024 Projection: Given Allen’s track record, surpassing 3,750.5 yards seems well within reach. However, it’s important to consider the dynamics of the Bills’ offense, potential injuries, and the strength of their schedule. Assuming Allen stays healthy and the Bills maintain their pass-heavy approach, he should comfortably exceed this total.
Prediction:Over 3,750.5 yards
2. Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 27.5
Historical Performance:
2020: 37 TDs
2021: 36 TDs
2022: 35 TDs
2023: 29 TDs
Allen’s touchdown production has been prolific, with him averaging 34.25 touchdowns per season from 2020 to 2023. Even in 2023, where he faced some offensive line challenges and had a slightly down year by his standards, he still managed 29 touchdowns. Notably, Allen’s red zone efficiency has remained strong, with a red zone passing team percentage of 100% in both 2022 and 2023.
2024 Projection: Allen’s ability to find the end zone through the air is a key aspect of his game. With a deep receiving corps and his own rushing threat that keeps defenses honest, Allen should have no trouble reaching 28 or more touchdowns this season.
Prediction:Over 27.5 touchdowns
3. Interceptions: Over/Under 12.5
Historical Performance:
2020: 10 INTs
2021: 15 INTs
2022: 14 INTs
2023: 18 INTs
Interceptions have been a growing concern for Allen, with his total rising each year from 2020 to 2023. His interception rate climbed to 3.1% in 2023, a worrying trend for a quarterback of his caliber. However, it’s essential to note that Allen’s aggressive playing style, while it leads to big plays, also results in higher turnover risks. His bad pass percentage, which hit a career-low of 0.1% in 2023, indicates that many of his interceptions might be attributed to factors beyond just poor decision-making, such as tipped passes or miscommunications.
2024 Projection: If Allen can rein in his aggressive tendencies and the Bills’ offensive line offers better protection, he could lower his interception total. However, given his recent history and the nature of his playing style, it’s reasonable to expect him to be around the 12-14 interception mark this season.
Prediction:Slightly Over 12.5 interceptions
Final Thoughts
Josh Allen enters the 2024 season with high expectations, both from fans and bettors alike. His prop totals set by DraftKings are ambitious but achievable, especially if he continues to build on his previous performances. While he’s likely to hit the over on passing yards and touchdowns, interceptions remain a wildcard. Bettors should consider these historical trends and Allen’s unique style of play when making their decisions.
Stay tuned to see how Josh Allen’s season unfolds and whether he can lead the Bills to another deep playoff run while delivering for those who bet on his success.
