Chargers vs. Patriots Week 17 Betting Preview: Odds, Injuries, and Expert Analysis

Introduction

The Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) are set to face the New England Patriots (3-11) in a Week 17 matchup at Gillette Stadium. With the Chargers on the cusp of securing an AFC wild-card playoff spot, this game carries significant postseason implications. Meanwhile, the Patriots aim to play spoiler and build momentum for the future.

Team Overviews

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have demonstrated a balanced offensive attack this season, averaging 218.3 passing yards and 106.5 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Justin Herbert continues to lead the offense efficiently, supported by a versatile receiving corps and a solid ground game. Defensively, the Chargers have been formidable, allowing 307.3 total yards per game, with a particular strength in pass defense.

New England Patriots

In contrast, the Patriots have faced challenges throughout the season, reflected in their 3-11 record. Offensively, they average 194.7 passing yards and 119.3 rushing yards per game. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown potential but has struggled with consistency. The defense, allowing 292.5 total yards per game, has been a relative bright spot, particularly against the run.

Key Stats & Trends

  • Against the Spread (ATS): The Chargers are 7-8 ATS this season, while the Patriots are 5-9.
  • Head-to-Head: The Chargers and Patriots have split their last four meetings, each winning two games.
  • Over/Under: The total has gone under in 10 of the Patriots’ 14 games this season, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring contests.

Injuries & Absences

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Gus Edwards (RB): Ruled out due to an ankle injury, impacting the depth of the running game.
  • J.K. Dobbins (RB): Activated from injured reserve after missing four games with a knee injury; expected to be the primary rushing threat.
  • Will Dissly (TE): Listed as questionable with a shoulder injury; his availability could affect the passing game.

New England Patriots

  • Christian Barmore (DT): Placed on the reserve/non-football illness list due to recurring symptoms related to blood clots; his absence weakens the defensive line.
  • DeMario Douglas (WR): Questionable with an ankle injury; his status is crucial for the receiving corps.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): Limited in practice due to a foot injury; his participation is vital for the running game.

Betting Lines & Odds

  • Point Spread: Chargers favored by 6 points.
  • Moneyline: Chargers -240, Patriots +200.
  • Over/Under: 42.5 points.

Note: Betting lines are subject to change.

Expert Analysis

With the return of J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers are poised to exploit the Patriots’ defensive line, which is missing key players like Christian Barmore. Justin Herbert’s connection with rookie receiver Ladd McConkey, who leads the team with 69 receptions for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns, will be pivotal. The Patriots’ secondary, led by a now-healthy Jonathan Jones, will need to contain this duo to keep the game competitive.

Weather conditions in Foxborough are expected to be cold with potential wind, which could influence both teams’ passing games and place greater emphasis on the running attack.

Key Player Projections

  • Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers): Projected to complete 17 of 26 passes for approximately 214 yards, with potential for multiple touchdowns.
  • J.K. Dobbins (RB, Chargers): Expected to handle a significant workload, potentially accumulating 80-100 rushing yards and a touchdown.
  • Drake Maye (QB, Patriots): Anticipated to complete 18 of 29 passes for around 187 yards, with limited turnovers.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots): If active, projected to contribute 70-90 rushing yards and be a factor in the short passing game.

Final Thoughts

This matchup presents a crucial opportunity for the Chargers to secure their playoff position, while the Patriots aim to disrupt their plans and end the season on a positive note. Bettors should monitor injury reports and weather updates closely, as these factors could significantly influence the game’s outcome.

For the latest predictive analytics and detailed projections, visit the matchup page on Sharpest Bets: Chargers vs. Patriots Predictions.

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