The Cubs bring one of our stronger lineup grades into Fenway, but they’ve scored just two runs in each of their last three games. Boston’s pitching grades even better, though its own bats are coming off a shutout. The moneyline turns on which club can make more of its chances, not just which one gets runners aboard.
Chicago’s lineup has more to show
Our grades put the Cubs’ lineup at A- and Boston’s pitching at A. Chicago still found a way to clinch a playoff berth with Thursday’s 2-1 win over Miami. Pete Crow-Armstrong stole his 40th base to go with 45 home runs this season, and Seiya Suzuki homered. That’s a reminder of the damage Chicago can do, even when the recent run totals look modest.
Chicago is 5-5 over its last 10 games. Our hits and walks projections put the Cubs at roughly seven hits and four walks here. There’s a plausible route to baserunners, but Thursday’s win also showed how little room they’ve had to waste scoring opportunities. Boston’s pitching is a tougher test of whether the lineup grade can translate into runs.
Boston has a path of its own
The Red Sox have scored three runs across their last three games against Cleveland. They were held to two hits in Thursday’s 1-0 loss, according to the AP, and are 4-6 over their last 10. Our B- lineup grade gives Chicago’s B+ pitching an opening, even if Boston’s A pitching grade presents the tougher challenge on the other side.
Still, our projections put Boston at roughly eight hits, a little more than Chicago. That’s a credible way for the Red Sox to create chances despite the gap in lineup grades. Their recent trouble has been turning contact into runs; if that continues, even a strong outing from their pitching staff could leave them little margin.
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Where the price meets the matchup
The latest DraftKings moneyline has Chicago at -125 and Boston at +104. Chicago’s lineup helps explain why it’s favored, but Boston’s pitching and the Cubs’ recent scoring keep this from being a simple comparison of batting talent. For Boston, the clearest route is to limit Chicago’s damage while finding enough offense against a Cubs pitching staff we grade B+.
The 6.5-run total puts those quiet stretches in focus, too. Nine of Boston’s last 10 games have finished under their respective totals, while six of Chicago’s last 10 have gone over, with one push. Those games had different opponents and lines. Chicago’s stronger lineup and Boston’s projected opportunities on the bases are reasons not to treat either recent pattern as a forecast for this game.
Chicago has the more convincing lineup grade and players capable of changing an inning quickly. Boston counters with our stronger pitching grade and a plausible path to getting runners on. The deciding test may be what each club does with its early chances: recent scoring favors neither offense, while the grades leave room for Chicago’s bats or Boston’s pitching to take control.
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