Pittsburgh’s 7–0 win at Philadelphia gives the Penguins an eye-catching result heading into this matchup, but there’s a more useful reason to take them seriously against favored Montreal: our projections give Pittsburgh the edge in shots. The Canadiens won their opener, too, beating Toronto 3–2, and carry slightly stronger team grades. The interesting balance is between Montreal’s broader team assessment and Pittsburgh’s potential to generate more shooting opportunities.
More shots for Pittsburgh, stronger grades for Montreal
Our shot projections put Pittsburgh at roughly 29 and Montreal at 26. That’s a meaningful volume advantage in a matchup where the team grades aren’t far apart. Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell feature on Pittsburgh’s first forward line, with Evgeni Malkin adding another scoring option on the second. Those forwards give the projected shooting edge a practical focus: Pittsburgh needs to turn its opportunities into sustained pressure and goals.
Montreal’s counterweight is its slightly stronger overall assessment. Our grades give both clubs a B for attack, while the Canadiens hold a C+ defensive grade against Pittsburgh’s C. Montreal also leads B− to C+ overall. Those modest differences support the Canadiens’ favorite status without suggesting a wide gap between the teams.
Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield form a prominent first-line pairing for Montreal, while Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov feature on the second line. Getting production across those two lines would help the Canadiens make the most of their opportunities, especially if Pittsburgh generates the greater shot volume we project.
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How the moneyline fits the matchup
The DraftKings moneyline has Montreal at −130 and Pittsburgh at +110. That modest pricing gap fits the difference in our grades, but the Penguins’ projected shot advantage is a real counterweight. Montreal’s stronger overall assessment is one part of the value discussion; how much Pittsburgh can do with its shooting opportunities is the other.
The strongest case for Montreal is its slightly better team profile, not a dramatic separation in attacking quality. Pittsburgh brings the projected volume edge, with its seven-goal opener offering an encouraging result rather than an established scoring pattern. Finishing is the key balance here: whether the Penguins can capitalize on more opportunities, or Montreal can get enough from fewer, matters more than simply comparing the two opening wins.
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