Notre Dame has a convincing case as the stronger team against Stanford on Saturday. The tougher question for bettors is whether that advantage can produce the runaway the spread demands: DraftKings has the Fighting Irish as 38.5-point favorites. Stanford arrives after a 57-3 loss, while Notre Dame just showed how effectively it can lean on its running game. Still, the Irish’s latest win was a reminder that controlling a game and covering a huge number are different challenges.
Notre Dame’s ground game gives it a clear path
The Irish ran for a season-best 241 yards in their 37-26 win at North Carolina last Saturday, with Jonaz Walton contributing 120. In rainy conditions, Notre Dame answered a sudden one-point game with a 17-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that consumed more than nine minutes. That’s a useful example of how this team can regain control without needing a string of explosive plays.
Our rushing projections put Notre Dame at about 205 yards against Stanford, compared with roughly 65 for the Cardinal. That expected gap makes the ground game a central part of the matchup: the Irish have a plausible route to sustained drives, while Stanford faces a much harder task finding similar production on the ground. We also give Notre Dame the edge on both sides of the ball, rating its offense A and its defense A- against Stanford’s C+ in both areas.
Stanford needs more than a defensive response
Stanford’s problem last Saturday wasn’t just allowing 57 points. The Cardinal managed only 197 total yards against Wake Forest and have scored in single digits in each of their three losses this season. Against this opponent, finding enough offense to keep drives alive matters as much as slowing Notre Dame down.
There is at least a vulnerability for Stanford to test. North Carolina threw three touchdown passes against the Irish, and Marcus Freeman pointed to mistakes in Notre Dame’s pass defense afterward, as reported by AP. Stanford still has to show it can take advantage, but the passing game offers an opening worth watching—especially with our projections anticipating limited rushing production.
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A strong team still has a high bar to clear
Notre Dame has won all of its last 10 games, a stretch spanning late 2025 and this season, but has covered the spread in six of them. Its 11-point victory at North Carolina fell short of a 21-point line. Those results help explain the distinction here: an unbeaten team can play well, win comfortably and still leave bettors needing considerably more.
The strongest case for Notre Dame is its ability to keep moving the ball against a Stanford team coming off a severe setback. The counterweight is the size of the spread and the pass-defense lapses that helped North Carolina stay competitive. Stanford’s ability to sustain possessions is the key: another afternoon of stalled drives would make an already difficult matchup much harder, while meaningful passing production could make the spread a tougher hurdle for the Irish.
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