Columbus has a small edge in the odds, but its last game offered a clear warning: penalties can overwhelm an otherwise competitive matchup. Both teams are coming off losses, and our projections see little separation in their shooting volume. That makes the Blue Jackets’ ability to avoid another costly night on the penalty kill an especially useful thread to follow against Pittsburgh.
A slight favorite, not a big gap
The current moneyline at DraftKings has Columbus at -122 and Pittsburgh at +102. That makes the Blue Jackets a modest favorite rather than a team priced to dominate. Our grades offer a similarly close comparison: both teams earn a B for their attack and a B- overall, while Columbus has a small defensive edge, C+ to Pittsburgh’s C.
Our shooting projections put both teams at roughly 29 shots. With similar expected volume, neither attack has a clear advantage on that measure alone; the quality of those chances and how often they convert still matter. Pittsburgh’s path is to get its attack back to the level it showed in its opening two wins, when it scored seven and six goals. Columbus’s is to produce enough at even strength while avoiding the penalties that hurt it last weekend.
Columbus’s last loss puts special teams in focus
Columbus lost 4-1 to Utah last Saturday, allowing three power-play goals. Kent Johnson’s second-period goal had brought the Blue Jackets within 2-1 before Utah added two power-play goals in the third. The final score was lopsided, but the game was still within reach before those late power-play goals pulled Utah away.
We project roughly three power-play opportunities for Pittsburgh here, giving Columbus’s discipline a direct connection to this matchup. How much those chances produce will depend on the Penguins’ execution. The Blue Jackets beat Buffalo 6-3 in their other game this season, so their two outings have shown both scoring upside and a very different outcome when special teams went against them.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Penguins vs. Blue Jackets picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
How to think about the 6.5-goal total
The posted total is 6.5. Pittsburgh has cleared that threshold in three of its four recent games this season, but its two most recent results landed on opposite sides: a 3-2 loss to Winnipeg on Monday and a 5-3 loss to Washington on Wednesday.
Arturs Silovs’s recent performances also span both extremes. He allowed five goals against Montreal and five against Washington after shutting out Philadelphia. That three-appearance stretch gives Pittsburgh a wide range of recent goaltending results rather than a settled pattern. Alongside our B grades for both attacks and more modest defensive grades, it keeps the case for an over in the discussion.
The counterweight is Columbus’s one-goal outing against Utah, a reminder that both attacks don’t necessarily deliver on the same night. Roughly 29 shots apiece leaves room for either team to score, but similar volume doesn’t settle the total. Pittsburgh’s recent high-scoring games are useful context, but Columbus’s offensive response and the number of power-play chances deserve more attention than a simple count of past overs.
The useful takeaway
Columbus’s slight favorite status fits a matchup with only modest separation in our team evaluations. Pittsburgh has already shown the scoring upside to make this competitive, while Columbus’s 6-3 win shows the Blue Jackets can answer. Their one-goal loss is the important counterweight. The clearest checkpoint is whether Columbus can keep this closer to an even-strength contest: limiting Pittsburgh’s power-play opportunities would remove one route to extra offense, while another costly night on the penalty kill could make both the narrow moneyline gap and the 6.5-goal total more demanding for the Blue Jackets.
We break down every matchup
For a wider look at the league’s games, explore our NHL betting board for sharp picks, current odds and matchup ratings.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.