Florida’s strongest advantage against Columbus is its defensive outlook—but its recent results haven’t made that advantage easy to trust. The Panthers have allowed nine goals across two straight losses, while the Blue Jackets enter as modest favorites with the stronger attacking evaluation. Florida’s improved power play offers a credible response, making this a matchup where the latest scores tell only part of the story.
A close price, with different strengths
DraftKings’ moneyline prices put Columbus at -125 and Florida at +105. Our grades make this worth a closer look rather than a quick choice based on those recent losses: Florida earns an A- defensively compared with Columbus’ C+, while the Blue Jackets have the stronger attacking grade, B to C.
The shooting outlook is fairly close. Our shot projections put Columbus at about 29 shots and Florida at about 28. That gives the Blue Jackets a small expected volume advantage, not an overwhelming one. Their case rests more on the stronger attacking evaluation than on a forecast of dramatically more shots.
Florida’s clearest opportunity to improve its scoring comes on the power play. In Monday’s 5-3 loss to Buffalo, the Panthers converted two of four chances after entering the game just 1-for-28. Our projections give Florida about three power-play opportunities here, compared with about two for Columbus. One productive afternoon doesn’t establish a turnaround, but it gives the Panthers something concrete to build on despite their lower attacking grade.
The goalie results complicate the 6.5-goal total
Akira Schmid and Jet Greaves are the expected goalies, and neither has strong results in the small early-season sample available. Schmid has an .868 save percentage across two appearances for Florida; Greaves has an .867 mark across three for Columbus. Those short stretches deserve attention alongside Florida’s strong defensive grade, particularly with the total set at 6.5.
Schmid relieved Jacob Markstrom after the first period on Monday and allowed three goals on 21 shots. Columbus also lost its latest game 5-3, falling to St. Louis on Saturday. That game included an empty-net goal, so the final score alone doesn’t tell the whole story of its goaltending.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Panthers vs. Blue Jackets picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
There’s a meaningful counterweight to those high-scoring losses: four of Florida’s last six games finished Under their posted totals, and the Panthers scored no more than three goals in any of them. All six were played this season. With only a narrow projected shot-volume gap and Florida still trying to sustain its power-play improvement, the recent goalie numbers aren’t enough on their own to make a convincing case for a scoring surge at 6.5.
The wider scoring picture is less one-sided. Columbus’ four recent games this season split evenly between Overs and Unders, including a six-goal performance against Buffalo. Florida’s games also went Over in 48 of 85 outings over the past year, a broader stretch spanning two seasons and different posted totals. That contrast makes the Panthers’ recent low scoring useful context rather than a settled identity. At 6.5, Columbus’ stronger attack and the shaky early goalie results pull against Florida’s limited scoring and better defensive evaluation.
What matters most
Columbus brings the stronger attacking evaluation and a slight shooting edge. Florida counters with the better defensive grade and more projected power-play chances. The Panthers’ most concrete route to making the favorite uncomfortable is another productive special-teams performance alongside tighter defending: that would give their modest shot forecast more scoring potential. The total presents a different tension, with vulnerable early goalie results facing a Florida attack that hasn’t yet scored more than three in its recent six-game stretch. How much of Monday’s power-play improvement carries forward matters more than simply treating the two latest 5-3 losses as a scoring trend.
We break down every matchup
Explore our NHL betting board for sharp picks, current odds and matchup ratings across the league’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.