Colorado won the first round, but Dallas kept the scoring in check. That tension carries into Wednesday’s rematch: can the Stars contain the Avalanche again while finding enough scoring of their own? Our analysis gives Colorado the stronger attack, in line with its sportsbook favorite status, but Dallas’ six straight unders to start the season make another high-scoring Avalanche game far from a given.
Colorado has the attacking edge
The Avalanche beat the Stars 3-2 on Tuesday behind two Martin Necas goals, including one on a two-man advantage. Nathan MacKinnon added two assists, while Tyler Seguin had a goal and an assist for Dallas. The quick turnaround moves the home-and-home series to Ball Arena in Denver without much time for either team to reset.
Our shot projections favor Colorado in volume, at roughly 33 shots to Dallas’ 25. That’s a meaningful difference in opportunities to test the opposing goalie, though shot quality still matters. Our grades also separate the attacks—Colorado earns an A+ and Dallas a B—while both teams receive an A- defensively.
Dallas has a personnel concern on top of that gap. Wyatt Johnston won’t travel to Colorado because of illness, The Dallas Morning News’ Lia Assimakopoulos reports. His absence leaves the Stars without one of their centers as they try to generate more than Tuesday’s two goals.
What matters at 5.5 goals
The teams bring very different early-season scoring patterns into the current 5.5-goal total. All six Dallas games have finished under their respective sportsbook totals, while four of Colorado’s six have gone over. Dallas’ results include consecutive shutout wins, but also four games in which the Stars scored no more than twice. Their low totals have come from both sides of the puck. Four of those six unders were against 6.5-goal lines, making the lower 5.5 a tougher test of that pattern.
There’s also a change in net from Tuesday, when Jake Oettinger and Mackenzie Blackwood played. Casey DeSmith starts for Dallas, while Scott Wedgewood is Colorado’s expected starter. Our recent goalie comparison covers one appearance apiece this season: DeSmith stopped 24 of 26 shots against Nashville, and Wedgewood stopped 26 of 29 against Calgary. That’s a thin basis for separating the goalies, and neither was responsible for Tuesday’s five-goal game.
At 5.5, Colorado’s attacking strength and projected shot advantage give the higher-scoring case substance. The counterweight is Dallas’ strong defensive evaluation and its limited production so far, now with Johnston unavailable. Tuesday’s two-man-advantage goal also makes discipline worth watching: a brief special-teams opportunity helped Colorado build the lead in a game decided by one goal.
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A favorite still needs the right price
DraftKings’ current moneyline has Colorado at -155 and Dallas at +130. The Avalanche’s 4-2 start fits their favorite status, but it also offers a useful pricing reminder: flat one-unit moneyline bets on Colorado across those six games returned only about 0.22 units of profit. Winning regularly hasn’t translated into a large betting return.
The strongest case for Colorado is its projected shooting advantage against a Dallas attack missing Johnston. Dallas’ route to another close game rests on getting more scoring support for its defensive work and avoiding the costly penalties that helped Colorado on Tuesday. That makes the Stars’ scoring contribution especially important to the 5.5-goal discussion: Colorado’s attack challenges a simple repeat of the low score, but Dallas’ own struggles can still hold the total down. For the moneyline, the useful distinction remains liking Colorado’s matchup versus finding value at -155.
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