Patriots vs. Bears: Chicago’s ground game adds a twist to the quarterback matchup

Caleb Williams looked sharp in his return, but Chicago’s clearest opportunity to separate itself from New England might come on the ground. Williams is coming off a 305-yard performance, while Drake Maye has helped the Patriots win three straight. Our projections see little separation in passing yardage, making Chicago’s stronger rushing outlook an interesting part of a matchup that looks close beyond the quarterback headlines.

Two quarterbacks coming off very different wins

Williams completed his first 12 passes and finished 30 of 36 in Chicago’s 31-23 win over Atlanta on Sunday. It was his first game back after missing three games with a hamstring injury. D’Andre Swift added two rushing touchdowns as the Bears built a 31-7 lead before Atlanta’s late comeback.

That gives Chicago an encouraging starting point. The Bears’ scoring results this season include three games without Williams, so his productive return matters more to this matchup than treating all six games as an unchanged offense.

Maye, meanwhile, threw three touchdown passes and finished with 235 yards as New England beat the Jets 26-19 on Sunday. It was his third consecutive game with at least three touchdown passes. The Patriots have scored 29, 45 and 26 points during their three-game winning streak, although Sunday’s win fell short of covering a 7.5-point spread—a useful reminder that playing well and rewarding bettors aren’t always the same thing.

Where Chicago can create separation

Our team projections put both teams around 225 passing yards, but give Chicago about 150 rushing yards compared with roughly 130 for New England. We also project about 22 first downs for the Bears and 20 for the Patriots. That outlines a plausible Chicago path: a more productive running game and a modest advantage in sustaining drives, rather than needing Williams to repeat his 305-yard outing.

Chicago is a three-point favorite, but New England has a credible answer. We grade the Patriots’ offense and defense B+, compared with a B offense and C+ defense for Chicago. With Maye directing an attack that has found its scoring touch, the Bears’ lower defensive evaluation is the clearest counterweight to their rushing advantage. Chicago has a route to earning its favorite status, but our broader matchup assessment doesn’t suggest an obvious mismatch.

Why 50.5 deserves a closer look

The DraftKings total is 50.5, and the recent scoring evidence pulls in different directions. New England’s last three games have all gone over their respective totals. Four of Chicago’s six games this season have gone under, though that stretch includes Williams’ three-game absence.

Williams’ return and New England’s recent production give the higher-scoring case substance, especially against a Chicago defense we rate below its offense. The counterweight is New England’s stronger defensive grade and our expectation of passing yardage closer to 225 per team than Sunday’s headline performance from Williams. Chicago’s rushing outlook could help sustain drives, but the case for scoring above 50.5 still depends on how efficiently those drives turn into points.

The distinction for Chicago is between having a workable path to a win and creating enough separation to cover. Its projected ground-game edge offers that path, but New England’s B+ defense makes sustaining it the key test, while Maye’s touchdown production gives the Patriots a way to keep pace. At 50.5, Williams’ return makes Chicago’s earlier unders less persuasive on their own; New England’s defensive strength remains the strongest counterweight to simply carrying Sunday’s offensive optimism forward.

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