Denver keeps finding ways to win, but can it produce enough offense to pull away from Arizona? The Broncos are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings after winning a game in which they managed just 168 yards. The Cardinals just pulled off their own defensive surprise against the Rams. That makes this matchup less about the difference between their records and more about whether Denver can turn its strongest unit into a comfortable advantage.
Denver’s defense is carrying a heavy load
The Broncos beat Seattle 17-14 in overtime last Thursday despite Bo Nix throwing for only 107 yards. Denver’s defense supplied five sacks and two interceptions, with Ja’Quan McMillian’s overtime pick setting up the winning field goal. It was an impressive escape, but also a clear example of why winning and covering a favorite’s spread can be different tasks.
Our grades show the same uneven picture: Denver earns an A+ on defense and a B+ on offense with Nix at quarterback. Arizona’s defense receives a C, giving the Broncos a potentially friendlier matchup than their last performance suggests. Still, our total-yardage projections put both teams around 320 yards. That’s a fairly close expected output even with Denver holding the stronger overall evaluation.
Wednesday’s practice updates also put a few key Broncos in focus. Receiver Jaylen Waddle was limited by a chest injury, and safety Talanoa Hufanga didn’t participate because of an ankle injury, the Broncos’ Aric DiLalla reported. Cornerback Pat Surtain II was also limited by an ankle injury. Waddle’s participation matters to an offense looking for more production, while Surtain and Hufanga are important names to monitor on Denver’s strongest unit.
Arizona has a rebound to build on
Arizona edged the Rams 18-16 on Sunday behind six Chad Ryland field goals. Jacoby Brissett threw for 218 yards, while the Cardinals held Los Angeles to 286 total yards. That gives Arizona a concrete path to another competitive game: keep Denver’s passing attack quiet and give Brissett enough opportunities to stay within reach.
The question is whether that defensive performance can carry over. Arizona allowed 36, 36 and 45 points in its three games before beating the Rams. One strong afternoon is encouraging, but that earlier stretch explains why Denver’s offense has an opportunity to improve. Safety Budda Baker missed Wednesday’s practice with a groin injury and an illness, another availability development worth watching after the defensive rebound.
Arizona also expects running back Jeremiyah Love to remain unavailable Sunday because of his ankle injury, according to Thursday’s report from CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz. That would leave the Cardinals without their top running back on the supplied depth chart against a defense we rate highly.
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What matters at a total of 43.5
Denver’s recent scoring pattern gives the 43.5-point total useful context. Five of its six games this season have finished under their respective totals, producing a historical profit of 3.48 units for flat one-unit Under bets at those games’ prices. Its latest win showed how defensive pressure and limited offensive production can keep a game tight.
Arizona supplies the counterweight: three of its last four games went over, including the three-game stretch in which its defense struggled. The Rams win offered a different picture, though Arizona needed six field goals rather than touchdowns to generate its 18 points. At 43.5, Denver’s offensive limitations and Arizona’s latest defensive showing weigh against the higher-scoring games that preceded it.
The most useful question is whether the Cardinals can sustain that improvement. If they again limit the opposing offense, Denver may have trouble creating separation while scoring stays constrained. If those earlier defensive problems return, the Broncos have room to improve offensively and push the scoring outlook higher.
Denver’s defense is the strongest supported reason to respect its favorite status. The hesitation is an offense coming off just 168 yards, with our yardage projections suggesting little separation between the teams. Arizona’s resistance to Nix is the hinge for both markets: another strong defensive performance would make a comfortable Denver margin harder to build, while a return to the Cardinals’ earlier struggles would give the Broncos a much clearer route to offensive improvement.
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