Detroit has scored at least 26 points in every game this season. Green Bay has allowed 14 or fewer in three straight wins. That’s the central tension on Sunday: can the Packers make Detroit play a lower-scoring game, or will the Lions pull them into a shootout? Detroit’s own defensive vulnerabilities give Green Bay another way to compete, making this more than a test of the Packers’ recent improvement.
Detroit brings more than a passing threat
The Lions last played on October 11, when they beat Arizona 45-21. Jared Goff threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 151 yards and two scores. Jameson Williams caught two touchdown passes. That combination gives Green Bay several problems to solve rather than one receiver or one phase to contain.
Our projections put Detroit at about 275 passing yards and 110 rushing yards. That’s a productive attack through the air and on the ground, consistent with the A+ grade we give the Lions’ offense. Green Bay’s defense earns a B in our analysis—a credible challenge, but not an overwhelming mismatch in the Packers’ favor.
There’s also a scheduling difference: Detroit hasn’t played since that Arizona win, while Green Bay played Sunday night. The Lions have had the longer break, although that alone doesn’t tell us how effectively either team will execute.
Green Bay has a way to answer
The Packers beat Dallas 23-13 on Sunday night, with Jordan Love throwing for 276 yards and Green Bay intercepting two passes to stop second-quarter scoring opportunities. It was their third straight win, following victories over Tampa Bay and Chicago. Across those three games, the Packers allowed 14, seven and 13 points. Those interceptions helped protect the latest low score; against Detroit, Green Bay will need to limit drives as well as capitalize on mistakes.
The other side of this matchup matters just as much: we grade Detroit’s defense D+, giving Love and the Packers a plausible route to keeping pace even if the Lions score. Our projections have Green Bay throwing for about 265 yards, only modestly behind Detroit. The Lions’ stronger offensive grade doesn’t translate into a huge separation in expected passing production.
Detroit did show defensive improvement against Arizona, forcing five straight three-and-outs in the first half. That’s a useful counterweight to its weak defensive grade: Love has an opening, but the Lions’ latest performance gives them something to build on, too.
Green Bay also received encouraging receiver updates Thursday. Coach Matt LaFleur said the team had no concern about Christian Watson’s ankle or Matthew Golden’s shoulder affecting their availability against Detroit, according to ESPN’s Rob Demovsky. Golden caught six passes for 104 yards against Dallas, making that update particularly relevant to Love’s receiving options.
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What the spread and total ask of these teams
With Detroit a 3-point favorite, the spread puts the focus on whether its scoring strength can create separation. The Lions are 3-2 outright this season but have covered only once in five games, with one push. Green Bay has won and covered in each of its past three games. That contrast shows why picking the better attack isn’t the whole betting decision.
The 53.5-point total captures the clash especially well. All five Detroit games this season have gone over their sportsbook totals, while four of Green Bay’s six have gone under. Detroit’s productive attack and vulnerable defense support the higher-scoring case, particularly if Love can exploit that defensive matchup. Green Bay’s recent points allowed—and Detroit’s improved first-half defense against Arizona—provide reasons scoring could be harder to sustain. At this total, the question is how much of the Lions’ usual production survives against Green Bay, and how much the Packers contribute themselves.
Green Bay has two supported ways to stay competitive: extend its defensive run, or have Love take advantage of Detroit’s weaker unit. Detroit’s strongest case is its ability to attack through both Goff and Gibbs, with extra rest before this matchup. The key is whether the Packers can disrupt that balance without relying on the timely takeaways that helped against Dallas. Their recent defensive scores are encouraging, but Love’s ability to answer matters just as much to the spread—and makes those low-scoring Green Bay results an incomplete guide to the total.
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