Boston has won seven of its last 10 games, but San Jose brings two straight wins and an encouraging turnaround from Yaroslav Askarov into Saturday’s matchup. The question is whether that recent goaltending improvement can make the Sharks more competitive against a Bruins team that beat them 6-3 earlier this month. Boston’s stronger recent run supports its appeal as the favorite; San Jose’s response in net makes this more interesting than a comparison of records.
Boston’s case goes beyond its latest six-goal night
Boston is a -192 favorite on the DraftKings moneyline, with San Jose at +160. The Bruins are 7-3 across their last 10 games, compared with the Sharks’ 5-5, and the earlier meeting gives the home favorite another concrete result in its favor.
David Pastrnak supplied two goals and two assists in Thursday’s 6-0 win over Nashville. That shutout belonged to Michael DiPietro, though, so it’s worth separating Boston’s latest team result from the expected goalie matchup here.
Jeremy Swayman has stopped 93.6% of the shots he’s faced across his five most recent appearances this season, allowing nine goals in that stretch. He also made 35 saves on 38 shots in the earlier win over San Jose. That recent performance strengthens Boston’s case, although it’s still a five-appearance sample.
Askarov gives the Sharks a counterweight
Askarov’s five-appearance save percentage is much lower at 88.3%, but the sequence matters. He allowed two goals on 31 shots against Toronto, then two on 43 shots against Ottawa. Those last two starts look considerably better than the three preceding them, when he allowed 13 goals.
San Jose also arrives after beating Montreal 4-3 and Ottawa 6-2. The Ottawa score needs a little context: the Sharks added two empty-net goals. It was a convincing result, but not six goals generated against a goalie.
Our shot projections put the shooting volume close together: about 27 shots for Boston and 26 for San Jose. That gives the Sharks a plausible route to a competitive game if Askarov maintains his recent level. It also keeps the Bruins’ price from being a simple story about an overwhelming expected shot advantage.
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What that means for the 6.5-goal total
Both teams scored six on Thursday, but those results aren’t a straightforward argument for a high-scoring rematch. Boston’s win included a shutout, San Jose’s included two empty-netters, and the expected goalies bring different but encouraging recent evidence: sustained strong results from Swayman and two improved starts from Askarov.
The season’s betting results reflect that tension. Seven of Boston’s 11 games have finished under their posted totals, while six of San Jose’s 11 have gone over. Those games had different thresholds. At today’s 6.5, Swayman’s recent performance and Askarov’s improvement provide reasons to temper the six-goal headlines, especially with neither team projected to hold a large shooting-volume advantage. The earlier 6-3 meeting is the clear counterweight to expecting a quieter game.
Boston’s stronger recent results and Swayman’s five-appearance performance give its favorite status a firmer foundation than Thursday’s score alone. San Jose’s most meaningful answer is Askarov’s improvement, with our close shot projections making that rebound especially relevant. The key price question is how much confidence to put in those two starts against his weaker five-appearance record—not whether the Sharks can simply repeat a six-goal night helped by empty-netters.
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