Devaughn Vele’s 40-yard line has held up in four of the five Saints wins he’s played in over the past year. Two of those hits finished at 40 and 42 yards, so this is an angle for a New Orleans win in Paris with little room to spare.
Our Saints parlay picks start with that result and work outward: a passing touchdown for Tyler Shough, receiving yards for Vele, then Pat Freiermuth’s catches and Jaylen Warren’s reception under in Steelers losses.
That gives this Side & Support edition a mix of Saints-win and Steelers-loss records to compare. Shough offers the shorter price; Warren’s under brings a bigger payout and a recent receiving role that needs more caution.
Four props to pair with a Saints win
The records below cover the past year, including playoffs, with each player’s current team. The smaller samples and recent role changes get a closer look in the player breakdowns.
| Player & prop | Odds | When NO wins / PIT loses | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough 1+ passing touchdown |
−363 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Saints wins |
75.0% 12 of 16 games |
| Devaughn Vele 40+ receiving yards |
−135 | 80.0% 4 of 5 Saints wins |
53.8% 7 of 13 games |
| Pat Freiermuth 3+ catches |
−203 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Steelers losses |
70.6% 12 of 17 games |
| Jaylen Warren Under 2.5 catches |
+139 | 87.5% 7 of 8 Steelers losses |
61.1% 11 of 18 games |
Tyler Shough: 1+ passing touchdown
Shough has thrown a touchdown in six of the seven Saints wins he played in over the past year, compared with 12 of 16 appearances overall. The 1+ passing-touchdown line is −363, making it the shortest price among these four options.
Both New Orleans wins this season included a passing score: one at Baltimore and three against the Giants last week. That latest three-touchdown game came on just 144 passing yards, a reminder that this option asks for a scoring throw rather than a big yardage total.
A Saints win can still come another way. Shough threw no touchdowns in last December’s victory at Tampa Bay, when he ran for two. He also had no passing scores in the recent loss to Minnesota.
He practiced fully with a left-hand issue and had no game designation on the final report. Final availability still needs checking before kickoff.
Devaughn Vele: 40+ receiving yards
Vele gives you a receiving option at −135. He has reached 40 yards in four of five Saints wins over the past year, compared with seven of 13 appearances overall.
Only two of those five wins came this season, but both cleared the line: 64 yards at Baltimore and 42 against the Giants. The other winning totals were 15, 40 and 69. It is an 80% record from a small sample, with two hits right at or near the requirement.
His latest 42 yards came on three catches from six targets. Before that he had 26 yards against Minnesota and 54 against Atlanta, both losses. There’s enough recent involvement to make the line worth comparing, while the quieter game shows the limit.
Vele’s receiving yards can come from the same passing offense as Shough’s touchdown, but the two props ask for different things. Don’t treat their separate hit rates as a combined chance of success.
Pat Freiermuth: 3+ catches
Freiermuth has caught at least three passes in six of seven Steelers losses he played in over the past year, compared with 12 of 17 appearances overall. DraftKings lists 3+ catches at −203.
He caught four passes in Pittsburgh’s loss at New England this season and three in the loss at Cleveland. Those two games support the angle, but five of the six hits across the full loss sample finished at exactly three catches.
The miss was a one-catch playoff loss to Houston. His latest game was another two-catch outing, this time in a win over Tampa Bay. A Pittsburgh loss can leave Freiermuth involved without giving this line much breathing room.
Keep his role in view alongside Pittsburgh’s receiver absences and Washington’s involvement. More available work does not settle which player gets the catches.
Jaylen Warren: under 2.5 catches
Warren has finished below three catches in seven of eight Steelers losses over the past year, compared with 11 of 18 appearances overall. At +139, this is the biggest payout of the four options.
His current receiving work is the main challenge to that older record. This season’s two losses produced two and three catches, so the under has gone one-for-two in those games. His six appearances this season have produced five, two, three, three, six and two catches.
That makes this the most tentative option here despite the 7-of-8 loss record. He has stayed under in only three of six games this season, and Rico Dowdle’s questionable knee status adds another workload question. Neither a Saints win nor Dowdle’s status tells you how many checkdowns Warren will receive.
Saints parlay picks: weigh the recent roles
Shough gives you a one-touchdown requirement with hits in both Saints wins this season, at the shortest price. Vele offers a lighter price and a five-win receiving comparison, with his latest 42-yard game showing how close that line can be.
Freiermuth adds a route through Steelers losses, though many of his hits landed exactly on three catches. Warren’s under has the largest payout and the biggest gap between its full-year loss record and this season’s receiving role. Give that role more weight than the 87.5% headline alone.
You can leave an option out. Compare the exact lines, final active list and sportsbook SGP pricing before choosing your support. The individual prices here are snapshots and can change.
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