Detroit has won all three of its games, New York has lost all three, and the Knicks are still 3.5-point favorites. That contrast makes this matchup interesting, but Sunday offered a more specific question: can New York finish what it starts? The Knicks built a double-digit fourth-quarter lead before losing to Orlando, while the Pistons kept answering Philadelphia’s comeback attempts. For New York, cleaner late-game possessions would go a long way toward making those opposite starts feel less important.
New York’s problem wasn’t getting in front
The Knicks led Orlando 86-76 with 9:20 remaining Sunday, then lost 111-102 after committing eight of their 14 turnovers in the fourth quarter. Jalen Brunson scored 28 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby added 22 apiece. There was enough production to build a winning position; the possessions down the stretch undid it.
Detroit gave a different example in its 106-93 win over Philadelphia. Cade Cunningham scored 26 points, John Collins supplied 16 points and 11 rebounds, and Duncan Robinson made five 3-pointers. Cunningham and Robinson both hit important shots as the Sixers tried to close the gap. Philadelphia was playing on consecutive nights without Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, though, so that result deserves some context.
The opening-week betting results match the records: Detroit has covered the spread in all three games this season, while New York has covered none. That’s a useful description of the opening week, but not much of a track record yet. Our overall grades also have both teams at B, suggesting a smaller gap than their opposite records might imply.
The turnover matchup cuts both ways
Our projections give Detroit about 10 steals to New York’s eight, making ball security an especially relevant concern after the Knicks’ late collapse. But we also project about 14 Detroit turnovers compared with 13 for New York. The Pistons have a plausible route to disrupting the Knicks, without a clear projected advantage in taking care of the ball themselves.
Detroit also has an availability issue to monitor: starting wing Ausar Thompson is questionable with an ankle injury for Tuesday’s game. His availability is a meaningful uncertainty in the Pistons’ starting group.
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What matters at a 219.5-point total
New York has scored 100, 103 and 102 points in its first three games, all of which finished under their respective totals. Our grades rate both defenses A-, and we give Detroit’s offense a modest edge, B- to C+. Together, those factors give some substance to a restrained scoring outlook at the current 219.5 total.
Detroit’s opening week is the counterweight. Before scoring 106 in Philadelphia, the Pistons put up 121 against Boston and 128 against Miami; two of their three games went over. Orlando also scored 40 fourth-quarter points against New York on Sunday, showing how sharply the Knicks’ defensive results changed late. Turnovers complicate the scoring picture, though: they can take scoring opportunities away from one team even as they create chances for the other. At this total, New York’s ability to sustain its defensive work and Detroit’s ability to reproduce its higher-scoring performances matter more than simply extending a three-game trend.
The Knicks have shown they can build a lead, and our grades don’t suggest a large overall gap between these teams. Detroit brings the more convincing opening-week results and several players who delivered timely scoring Sunday. Protecting possessions late is the clearest test of New York’s favorite status, but our turnover projections leave room for Detroit to make costly mistakes, too. For the total, the tension is between New York’s low-scoring start and Detroit’s wider scoring range—not a clean pattern pointing the same way for both teams.
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