Vegas is favored against Ottawa, but its scoring touch has gone missing: the Golden Knights have managed just five goals during three straight losses. The Senators, meanwhile, arrive after putting seven past the Rangers. That makes the central question less about whether Vegas can bounce back and more about whether its attack can give bettors enough reason to trust the favorite.
A favorite with something to fix
DraftKings’ moneyline odds put Vegas at -162 and Ottawa at +136, yet both teams have won six of their last 10 games. The recent picture is closer than the Golden Knights’ losing streak alone suggests. Vegas scored six, six and five goals in the three wins immediately before that skid, so its attack has swung sharply in a short stretch.
The latest loss offered better goaltending but little scoring support. Vegas fell 2-1 in overtime at Columbus on Saturday, with Tomas Hertl scoring its only goal and Carter Hart making 18 saves. That was a much tighter game than the consecutive 6-2 defeats that preceded it.
Ottawa’s strongest recent argument comes from its forwards. Drake Batherson scored a hat trick and added an assist in Saturday’s 7-4 win over the Rangers; Tim Stutzle and Dylan Cozens also scored. The Senators have scored 14 goals across their last three games, although they’ve also allowed 11. There’s a clear path for Ottawa to challenge Vegas, but its latest results haven’t all been comfortable.
The goalie matchup gives the scoring story another layer
If the expected Samuel Ersson–Carter Hart matchup holds, Vegas will face a goalie whose recent appearances have been difficult. Ersson has an .835 save percentage across his last five appearances for Ottawa, including three starts and two relief outings. He allowed four goals on 26 shots against San Jose in his most recent appearance.
Hart has an .888 save percentage across his last five starts for Vegas. His latest outing was stronger—18 saves on 20 shots at Columbus—but that sample also includes six goals allowed on 21 shots against Tampa Bay. Hart has the better recent save percentage in this comparison, while his uneven results still leave Ottawa’s scorers a credible opening.
Ottawa also has a relevant update on Thomas Chabot’s upper-body injury: the defenseman participated fully in Monday’s practice in Vegas, according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia. His practice participation is encouraging, though it doesn’t establish whether he’ll play against the Golden Knights.
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Why 6.5 goals deserves a closer look
The sportsbook total is 6.5. Vegas games have gone Over in nine of 13 games this season, producing a historical profit of 4.58 units from flat one-unit Over bets. Ottawa provides a useful counterweight: seven of its 12 games this season went Under, even though its last three all went Over. The longer and shorter windows tell different stories.
Our shot projections call for about 28 shots from Ottawa and 29 from Vegas—a fairly even shooting workload rather than a large volume advantage for either team. At 6.5, the more interesting tension is between the goalies’ uneven recent results and Vegas’ sudden scoring slowdown. Ottawa’s latest burst makes a lively game plausible, but the Golden Knights need to contribute more than they have during this skid for that case to strengthen.
Ersson’s recent struggles give Vegas a reason to expect opportunities to rediscover its scoring touch, while Hart’s better recent sample offers the favorite some support at the other end. Neither erases Ottawa’s scoring threat. For bettors, the important connection between the moneyline and the total is whether Vegas can turn this goalie matchup into a more productive night—not simply whether it’s due to end a three-game losing streak.
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