Nashville’s six-goal outburst makes the Predators an interesting home favorite against the Islanders, but the way those goals arrived matters. Four came on the power play against Colorado on Sunday. With our projections pointing to far fewer man-advantage opportunities Tuesday, the question is whether Nashville can carry that scoring threat into a game that otherwise looks closely matched.
Look beyond the six goals
Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos each scored twice in Nashville’s 6-2 win over Colorado, while Filip Forsberg added a goal and two assists. That’s a productive night from several of the players the Predators need driving their attack.
The opportunity count deserves just as much attention. Nashville scored on four of seven power plays after getting only one chance in each of its previous three games. Our power-play opportunity projection puts the Predators at about three against New York. Their latest performance shows what that group can do, but seven chances would be a very different setup from the one we project here.
The current moneylines at DraftKings have Nashville at -122 and the Islanders at +102. That’s a modest preference for the home team, not a price suggesting a mismatch. Nashville has won four of its last 10 games; New York has won five of its last 10. Sunday’s contrasting results shouldn’t erase that broader picture.
New York has a route to a tighter game
The Islanders lost 6-3 in Dallas on Sunday, but they erased three one-goal deficits before the Stars pulled away with three goals in the third period. Matthew Schaefer, Kyle Palmieri and Brayden Schenn supplied New York’s goals. There was a response from the Islanders’ scorers, even though they couldn’t keep Dallas within reach.
We rate New York’s team defense more highly, with a B compared with Nashville’s C. The comparison flips in attack: Nashville earns a C and the Islanders a D+. That gives each team a plausible route here—Nashville through the stronger attacking assessment, New York through keeping the game contained. Our shot projections are almost level at about 28 apiece, so neither side has a meaningful projected shooting-volume advantage.
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What matters at a total of 5.5
The 5.5-goal total puts Nashville’s special teams at the center of the scoring discussion. Another productive power-play night could change the game quickly, but our expectation of roughly three opportunities is a meaningful contrast with Sunday’s seven. New York games have gone Under in seven of 11 outings this season, returning 2.63 units from flat one-unit Under bets at those historical prices.
The expected goalie matchup also makes Sunday’s high scores a less direct guide. Juuse Saros has a .908 save percentage over his five most recent appearances, while Semyon Varlamov has a .899 mark over his three appearances in the supplied same-season sample. Those are small samples, and neither goalie played in Sunday’s game: Justus Annunen was in net for Nashville and Ilya Sorokin for New York.
The strongest case for Nashville is its attacking edge and the recent production from O’Reilly, Stamkos and Forsberg. New York’s better defensive grade and the nearly even shot outlook keep that case from becoming overwhelming. With fewer power-play chances than Sunday in our projections, Nashville’s ability to generate scoring elsewhere becomes more important. That’s the key test of whether its six-goal performance translates into a stronger moneyline case—and how much weight it deserves at a total of 5.5.
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