Florida Atlantic and North Texas both enter Thursday night at 5-2, fresh off high-scoring wins. Now North Texas is a 13.5-point favorite, with the total set at 77.5 at DraftKings. The interesting question is how much of those fireworks can carry over: our projections give the Mean Green a substantial rushing advantage, while FAU has the passing production to make pulling away harder than it looks.
North Texas has another way to move the ball
North Texas beat Navy 49-39 on Saturday for its fourth straight win. Jahiem White finished with 174 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, while Justin Stevenson caught eight passes for 209 yards and two scores. Tayven Jackson threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a useful combination against an FAU team that just allowed Rice to rush for 499 yards.
Our rushing and passing projections point to a similar contrast here: about 190 rushing yards for North Texas versus 110 for Florida Atlantic. Passing yardage is much closer, at roughly 320 for the Mean Green and 325 for the Owls. That makes North Texas’ running game the clearest projected separator—not a need to overwhelm FAU through the air.
Still, North Texas allowed Navy 506 total yards, and a punt-return touchdown and a fumble-return touchdown helped secure the win. Its offense offers a strong case for favoritism; last week’s defensive performance offers less reassurance about laying nearly two touchdowns.
FAU has a passing answer
Florida Atlantic edged Rice 51-49 on Saturday behind a huge day from Easton Messer. He caught 12 passes for 162 yards, scored five touchdowns across receiving, rushing and a punt return, and finished with 262 all-purpose yards. Caden Veltkamp completed 29 of 37 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns.
That gives FAU a credible way to stay involved even if it can’t match North Texas on the ground. The concern is the other side of the ball: the Owls allowed 49 points to Rice after giving up 56 at Army. Asking their passing game to keep answering is a demanding way to navigate a road game against another productive attack.
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The total already expects a lot
Both teams have gone over the total in six of seven games this season, according to our historical betting data. But 77.5 is a very different starting point: neither team faced a total higher than 62.5 in its previous seven games. Their scoring history puts the lofty threshold in context without making another over an easy assumption.
There are clear reasons to expect points: FAU’s recent struggles stopping opponents, North Texas’ rushing outlook and productive passing options on both sides. The counterweight is how Saturday’s scores were assembled. Both teams scored on punt returns, and North Texas added a defensive touchdown. Those plays mattered enormously to the final scores, but they’re a less dependable foundation for evaluating this week’s total than sustained offensive production.
North Texas’ ground-game advantage is the strongest supported reason it can create separation. FAU’s passing attack, paired with the Mean Green’s own defensive concessions, is the main obstacle to turning that advantage into a comfortable margin. The key is whether North Texas can turn its extra rushing production into a cushion while limiting FAU’s passing response. That distinction matters at a demanding spread, just as the reliance on return touchdowns last week matters when assessing an already elevated total.
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