Houston’s perfect start gets a new test in Milwaukee: Alperen Sengun is out with a back injury after leading the Rockets with 29 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in their last win. The Bucks have just earned their first victory, and Houston remains an 8.5-point favorite. The question is how much of the Rockets’ early success carries forward when such a large contributor to their latest performance can’t play.
Four wins and four covers, with a different task ahead
The Rockets have won and covered the spread in all four games this season. Historical flat one-unit spread bets on Houston returned about 3.67 units across those games. Their latest two wins came against Atlanta, 121-114 on Saturday and 120-110 on Monday, giving them a consistent run of results before this change in availability.
Sengun was central to Monday’s win, but Houston got important help. Kevin Durant scored 22 points, while Jabari Smith Jr. added 16 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. After Atlanta cut the lead to two early in the fourth quarter, the Rockets answered with a 14-0 run that included threes from Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason.
That stretch gives Houston something to build on beyond Sengun’s individual performance. Durant and Smith supplied meaningful production, and other shooters helped create separation when the game tightened. Still, Sengun’s absence removes a 29-point scorer who also supplied nine assists. The unbeaten record deserves respect, while the way Houston sustains its scoring without him deserves a fresh look.
Milwaukee’s supporting scorers helped finish its first win
The Bucks beat Indiana 110-102 on Monday after losing their first three games. Tyler Herro finished with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, while Ryan Rollins scored 19, Kyle Kuzma had 17 and Kel’el Ware added 16 points and 14 rebounds.
Milwaukee broke an 86-86 tie with an 8-0 run early in the fourth quarter, then used late threes from Kasparas Jakucionis and Kuzma to regain some breathing room after Indiana rallied. That’s a more encouraging finish than the Bucks managed in their opening losses, though it remains one win. Indiana also entered the game without several players, including center Ivica Zubac, so the result needs that context.
Our projections have Milwaukee making about 14 three-pointers to Houston’s 11. That gives the Bucks a plausible way to compete against a sizable spread: get enough scoring from outside to complement the production Herro and the supporting group provided Monday. Kuzma’s late three against Indiana is one recent example of how that outside scoring can help Milwaukee finish a close stretch.
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The 225.5 total brings a changed offense into the discussion
Three of each team’s first four games have gone Over their respective totals. Houston has scored between 114 and 128 in those four wins, while Milwaukee scored 116, 125 and 116 before its 110-point breakthrough. Those results supply a scoring case, but Houston’s latest output included Sengun’s 29 points and nine assists.
At 225.5, his absence makes the Rockets’ ability to sustain both scoring and assisted baskets a more useful question than simply following the recent Over results. Milwaukee’s projected three-point advantage offers a counterweight on the scoring side. The Bucks’ latest win also came with only 102 points conceded, after allowing at least 127 in each of their first three games, leaving uncertainty over which version of their defense carries into this matchup.
What the early records leave unresolved
Houston brings the stronger body of work and demonstrated contributions from Durant, Smith and its shooters. Milwaukee brings a better recent finish and a favorable three-point outlook. The Rockets have earned their favorite status, but creating separation without one of Monday’s main scorers and playmakers is a distinct challenge. How well Houston keeps its offense functioning without Sengun, alongside Milwaukee’s outside shooting, is more informative here than treating 4-0 against 1-3 as the whole story.
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