New Jersey brings four straight wins to Colorado, yet the Avalanche are still the moneyline favorite. That makes this more interesting than a simple hot-team story: the Devils just won convincingly in Dallas, while Colorado’s latest defeat featured a costly parade to the penalty box. The question is how much of those two performances carries into Wednesday’s meeting.
A winning streak meets a different test
The Devils beat Dallas 5-1 on Tuesday, with Nico Hischier scoring twice and Connor Hellebuyck stopping 16 of 17 shots in his New Jersey debut. It was a decisive start to a road back-to-back. New Jersey now has to travel to Denver and play again, so the result is encouraging without making this an identical assignment.
There is also a change in net: Jake Allen is confirmed for this matchup. His last five completed appearances for New Jersey this season produced an .892 save percentage and a 2.59 goals-against average. Colorado’s expected starter, Mackenzie Blackwood, has an .891 save percentage and a 3.05 goals-against average across his last five appearances for Colorado this season, but his start is not confirmed. Those small samples offer little separation by save percentage; treating Tuesday’s Devils goaltending performance as tonight’s matchup would miss an important personnel difference.
Colorado’s discipline matters more than the last score
The Avalanche lost 6-2 in Nashville on Sunday, their third defeat in four games. Nashville scored on four of seven power plays. That gives the loss a specific lesson: Colorado needs to limit the chances it hands over with a skater in the box. It does not establish that the same breakdown will happen again, particularly with a different expected goalie from Scott Wedgewood, who played in that loss.
Our projections call for roughly 33 shots for Colorado and 30 for New Jersey, alongside about three power-play opportunities for the Avalanche and 2.6 for the Devils. That gives Colorado a modest advantage in expected shooting volume, with the quality of those attempts still important. The power-play outlook also falls well short of the seven chances Nashville received, a useful reason to avoid simply carrying that six-goal concession forward.
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What the prices ask of this matchup
DraftKings has Colorado at -148 and New Jersey at +124 in the current lines. That price sets a market break-even threshold of about 59.7%, giving bettors a benchmark for weighing Colorado’s case. Colorado’s projected shot advantage supports a competitive case for the favorite, while New Jersey’s four-game winning streak and the uncertainty around Blackwood’s start keep the recent results from settling that price question.
The total is 6.5, with Over +102 and Under -122. Eight of Colorado’s 12 games this season have gone Over their respective totals. The Devils’ last ten are split evenly, five Overs and five Unders. Colorado’s latest penalty trouble helps explain why special teams deserve attention, but these historical results were recorded against different totals and do not establish value at 6.5. Goalie confirmation and whether Colorado avoids another unusually large penalty burden matter more than assuming its recent high-scoring games must continue.
New Jersey’s momentum is real; Colorado’s opportunity is to turn a modest projected shot advantage into a more controlled game than its last outing. Watch the goaltending assignment and the penalties before giving either recent headline too much weight.
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