Missouri threw for 339 yards against Ole Miss and still scored only three points. Arkansas found a more useful mix in its last game, combining rushing touchdowns with two interceptions to beat Vanderbilt. Both teams return from a bye with Missouri a 10-point favorite at DraftKings, putting the Tigers’ ability to restore their running game and finish drives at the center of this trip to Fayetteville.
Missouri’s passing yards didn’t solve the problem
Ole Miss beat Missouri 31-3 on October 17. Austin Simmons completed 25 of 44 passes for 339 yards with an interception, but the Tigers trailed 21-3 at halftime and didn’t reach the red zone in the second half until the final two minutes.
Jamal Roberts ran for 39 yards on 20 carries after consecutive games of more than 200 rushing yards. Missouri also allowed 257 rushing yards. Those numbers give the Tigers two problems to address: getting their own ground game moving again and preventing the opponent from doing the same.
Our rushing projections offer a different picture against Arkansas. We project about 188 yards for Missouri and 109 for the Razorbacks. The passing outlook is nearly level, roughly 201 yards for the Tigers and 207 for Arkansas, within total-yardage projections of about 389 and 316. The favorite’s clearest production advantage is on the ground.
Arkansas has a recent example worth testing
The Razorbacks beat Vanderbilt 31-21 on October 17 to end a 14-game SEC losing streak. KJ Jackson threw for 251 yards and ran for 58, including an 8-yard touchdown that put Arkansas ahead 21-14 early in the third quarter. Cam Settles added two rushing touchdowns.
The defense supplied crucial help. Joker Johnson returned an interception 25 yards for a touchdown, and Miguel Mitchell intercepted another pass late with Vanderbilt threatening to score. Arkansas turned that second takeaway into a field goal. The win offered both offensive production and defensive plays that directly changed scoring opportunities.
That gives the home underdog a concrete response to Missouri’s rushing outlook. Arkansas can make the Tigers work if Jackson’s passing helps it sustain offense and its defense creates another timely stop. Our grades still favor Missouri on both sides: B+ offense and A- defense, compared with Arkansas’ B- offense and B defense.
Missouri is 5-2, and the Ole Miss defeat followed wins of 45-17 over Florida and 27-6 over Texas A&M. Arkansas is 3-4 after ending a two-game losing streak. The latest results matter, but the broader recent picture keeps Missouri’s bad outing from becoming the entire assessment.
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Finishing drives shapes the 49.5 total
This season, five of Arkansas' seven games have gone Under, as have four of Missouri’s seven. At a 49.5-point total, the Tigers’ recent mismatch between passing yards and points is especially relevant. A rushing rebound would give them another route to create and finish scoring chances.
Arkansas’ last win shows the counterweight to a quiet scoring game: a defensive touchdown can add points without an offensive drive, and a late takeaway can lead to another scoring possession. Missouri’s stronger defensive evaluation and Arkansas’ smaller rushing outlook challenge the Razorbacks to produce enough conventional offense, too. Whether Missouri turns its expected ground gains into points, rather than more stranded yardage, is the most useful scoring test.
Missouri has the stronger matchup case through its rushing projection and grades. Arkansas’ balanced latest performance and timely defensive plays are the main challenge to it. The Tigers need a more complete offensive day than the one at Ole Miss; the Razorbacks need to make Missouri earn that improvement while keeping their own attack involved.
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