St. Louis has gone two straight games without a goal, but its latest shutout came with 46 shots on net. That makes Thursday’s meeting with Boston more interesting than a simple comparison of records: the Bruins arrive at 9-3-1, the Blues at 5-6-1, yet the moneyline barely separates them. The useful question is whether St. Louis can turn its latest offensive activity into production against a Boston team whose own attack just stalled.
A drought with an important distinction
The Blues lost 2-0 to Montreal on Tuesday after falling 4-0 to Carolina on Saturday. Against the Canadiens, however, Jacob Fowler stopped all 46 shots, including 24 in the third period. St. Louis kept reaching the net without finding a goal.
That is a different problem from generating little offense at all. It gives the Blues a plausible starting point for recovery, but shot counts alone cannot establish the quality of those chances or make a scoring rebound inevitable. They also scored six against Vegas immediately before these two shutouts, so the recent results describe an uneven attack rather than a uniformly quiet one.
Our projections put both clubs at roughly 26 shots for this matchup. That offers no large expected volume advantage to either team—and certainly does not suggest St. Louis will automatically repeat Tuesday’s 46-shot effort.
Boston brings the stronger results, with a price question
Boston has won seven of its last 10 games, all from the current season. Its most recent loss was hardly a collapse: Carolina won 2-1, with Jeremy Swayman making 28 saves. But Pavel Zacha’s early power-play goal was Boston’s only breakthrough, and the Bruins could not convert two late power plays.
The Bruins scored six in each of their two games before that defeat. Their path is to recover some of that scoring while keeping St. Louis from translating pressure into goals. The Blues’ response is to build on the activity against Montreal rather than let another scoreless result define their whole attack.
DraftKings had St. Louis at -115 and Boston at -105 in Thursday morning’s snapshot. Boston’s better record therefore has not translated into favorite status at that book. Our historical data also show nine Boston outright wins in 13 games this season, producing a profit of 3.74 units from flat one-unit bets. That describes what backing Boston has returned at past prices; it does not settle the value of this particular -105.
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Why the 5.5 total needs more than the latest scores
The consecutive St. Louis shutouts and Boston’s one-goal outing put scoring concerns in focus at a posted total of 5.5. The expected goalies offer another restraint: Swayman and Joel Hofer each have about a .911 save percentage across their five most recent completed appearances for their respective teams this season. Those are limited samples, and both remain expected rather than confirmed starters.
The counterweight is the offense these teams have already shown around their latest losses, plus St. Louis’s ability to put shots on net against Montreal. Eight of Boston’s 13 games this season went Under their contemporary totals, while seven of St. Louis’s 12 went Over. Those differing thresholds and results resist a single scoring narrative.
For this matchup, separate the Blues’ failure to finish from their ability to create activity. Boston’s stronger results matter, but the close moneyline and similar projected shot totals make that distinction especially useful when assessing the price.
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