Charlotte finally has an offensive performance worth building on. The 49ers scored 38 points in their first win after managing just 25 combined across their previous three games. Now comes the harder question: can they carry that improvement into Friday’s matchup with Tulane? The Green Wave are 8.5-point favorites, and our projections give them a meaningful advantage on the ground—but their own uneven results leave room for Charlotte to make this competitive.
Charlotte has a blueprint, but not yet a pattern
Conner Harrell gave the 49ers several ways to move the ball in their 38-31 win at Temple on Oct. 17. He completed 23 of 31 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns, then added two rushing touchdowns. That’s a much stronger starting point than Charlotte’s preceding losses, when it scored seven against Louisiana, eight against Memphis and 10 against North Texas.
Tulane’s latest game offers some encouragement for Charlotte, too. UTSA scored five rushing touchdowns in a 42-19 win over the Green Wave last Saturday. Harrell’s two scoring runs against Temple make that result relevant, although one difficult night against UTSA doesn’t establish that Charlotte can reproduce the same success. In its two games before that loss, Tulane beat Memphis 31-17 and lost 20-17 at Army—a reminder that its defense hasn’t struggled every week.
Tulane’s clearest advantage is on the ground
Our rushing projections put Tulane at roughly 165 yards compared with about 95 for Charlotte. The broader yardage outlook also favors the Green Wave, at about 400 total yards to 300. That gives Tulane a plausible route to separating: generate more offense on the ground rather than needing a big passing performance.
Johnnie Daniels supplied the standout rushing play in the UTSA loss, breaking an 81-yard run and finishing with 104 yards on eight carries. The burst showed what he can contribute, but it also accounted for most of his production that night. Tulane needs more than an occasional explosive play to cover this spread comfortably.
That distinction matters with this favorite. Two of Tulane’s three wins this season came by just three points against Southern Miss and four against South Alabama. A yardage advantage supports the Green Wave’s case; turning it into a decisive scoreboard advantage is the next step.
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Why the 46.5-point total deserves a closer look
Charlotte’s last three games all went over their respective totals, but the route matters. Before beating Temple, the 49ers lost 59-8 to Memphis and 50-10 to North Texas. Those results point as much to points allowed as to an improving attack. Tulane offers a counterweight: three of its last four games stayed under their totals.
At the current total of 46.5, Charlotte’s ability to sustain its Temple improvement is especially important. Its recent defensive results leave a path to scoring for Tulane, while our projection of about 300 yards for the 49ers is more restrained than their 38-point breakthrough might suggest. Tulane’s lower-scoring games against Memphis and Army also give reason not to assume another shootout. Charlotte’s ability to contribute consistently matters more here than simply extending its recent over streak.
The takeaway
Tulane has the stronger projected rushing output and the clearer route to building a lead. Charlotte’s counterweight is Harrell’s productive last outing, especially after the Green Wave’s rough game against the run. But Tulane’s earlier defensive results temper that opening, and its narrow wins show why a production advantage alone doesn’t settle the spread. The key is whether Charlotte can sustain drives beyond its Temple breakthrough: that would make Tulane work harder to separate and give the scoring outlook more support than an over streak driven partly by lopsided losses.
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