Connor McDavid has opened the season with an assist in 14 straight games, and now Edmonton brings that extraordinary attacking run to a Rangers team trying to stop a very different streak. New York has lost three straight while allowing 18 goals. The Oilers still arrive as the slight underdog, making the matchup between their scoring threats and the Rangers’ recent defensive troubles the most useful place to start.
McDavid keeps supplying the offense
McDavid recorded his 29th assist Saturday as Edmonton beat the Islanders 4-0. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored twice, and Leon Draisaitl added two assists. McDavid’s season-opening assist streak has reached an NHL-record 14 games, giving the Oilers a source of production that extends well beyond their latest win.
The assist market reflects a costly threshold to back: McDavid’s 0.5-assist line is -215 to the Over and +160 to the Under. His streak makes the market worth examining, but the price still deserves attention. A remarkable run and an attractive bet are separate judgments.
Edmonton has won seven of its last 10 games and its latest two by identical 4-0 scores. Our offensive grades also favor the Oilers, at A- compared with C for the Rangers. Edmonton’s attacking strength gives New York a serious challenge, even as Sunday changes the setting and the goaltending matchup.
New York needs a more stable response
The Rangers’ last three results were a 5-4 loss at Toronto, a 7-4 loss at Ottawa and Monday’s 6-3 home defeat to Los Angeles. They scored enough to stay involved in the first two games, but repeatedly allowing that many goals puts pressure on the attack to keep rescuing the result.
Dylan Garand’s recent appearances show both sides of that problem. Across his latest five appearances for New York, including four starts and one relief outing, he stopped 119 of 134 shots for an .888 save percentage. He allowed one goal against Columbus and two against Anaheim before giving up five in each of his next two starts, against Toronto and Ottawa.
Garand then stopped 15 of 17 shots in relief against Los Angeles on Monday. James Reimer had allowed three goals in the first period, and the Kings added an empty-net goal later.
Sunday pairs Garand with Edmonton’s Matt Tomkins. The Oilers’ Saturday shutout belonged to Tristan Jarry, who stopped 18 shots for his second straight shutout.
The schedule is different, too. Edmonton plays for the second consecutive day, while the Rangers have not played since Monday. The Oilers also lost Isaac Howard to a knee injury Saturday; a fresh report from the AP’s Stephen Whyno says he won’t play against the Rangers on Sunday.
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A slight home favorite and a 6.5 total
DraftKings has New York at -125 and Edmonton at +105. The Rangers’ home setting and longer interval between games are relevant context, but their recent goals allowed make it difficult to treat favorite status as a straightforward endorsement. Edmonton’s stronger attacking evidence gives the underdog a credible route through this matchup.
Our projections put the Oilers at about 29 shots and the Rangers at about 25. That suggests an Edmonton edge in shooting volume, adding to the challenge facing Garand. It also makes New York’s ability to get a steadier performance in goal particularly relevant to the 6.5 total.
Nine of the Rangers’ 14 games this season have gone Over their posted totals. Their recent scoring and goals allowed give that history a clear matchup connection. Edmonton’s two shutouts push back against simply expecting another high-scoring game, though the change from Jarry to Tomkins means those results cannot carry the full low-scoring argument.
The stronger case for Edmonton rests on its attack, especially McDavid’s sustained playmaking. New York’s response in goal is the main counterweight: Garand has shown better results than his latest starts, but needs to recover them against this opponent. That is a more useful test of both the moneyline and total than assuming either the Rangers’ losing streak or Edmonton’s shutout streak continues.
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