Bijan Robinson has reached 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in all three Atlanta wins this season, with different routes to the total. He ran for 194 yards against Green Bay. In last week’s win over San Francisco, he paired 63 rushing yards with 59 receiving yards. That second contribution is central to the Falcons parlay picks below.
Atlanta visits Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, November 1, at 1 p.m. EST. For readers building around a hypothetical Atlanta win, there are four choices here: Robinson’s combined production, a Baker Mayfield interception, a Michael Penix Jr. rushing under and a small receiving target for Ted Hurst III. The prices and past exceptions help show what each one asks of this matchup.
Falcons supporting player props
These DraftKings prices were observed Sunday morning. Robinson, Mayfield and Penix use August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 with their current clubs, including playoff games where applicable; Hurst’s record starts August 1, 2026, covering his six targeted NFL appearances this season. Robinson and Penix are measured in Atlanta wins, and Mayfield and Hurst in Tampa Bay losses. Each all-games baseline uses the same dates, club and participation rule: a carry for rushing, a target for receiving or a pass attempt for interceptions. Robinson’s combined market includes games with a carry or target; all 24 appearances here had both. An absent player is not credited with an under hit. The individual rates are not a forecast of a parlay’s combined probability.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing + receiving yards Last season + this season |
−228 | 90.9% 10 of 11 ATL wins |
66.7% 16 of 24 appearances |
| Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions Last season + this season |
−110 | 83.3% 10 of 12 TB losses |
52.4% 11 of 21 appearances |
| Michael Penix Jr. Under 2.5 rushing yards Last season + this season |
−103 | 83.3% 5 of 6 ATL wins |
50.0% 7 of 14 appearances |
| Ted Hurst III 25+ receiving yards This season |
−170 | 100.0% 5 of 5 TB losses |
83.3% 5 of 6 appearances |
Bijan Robinson: 100+ rushing + receiving yards (−228)
Robinson reached 100 combined yards in 10 of 11 Atlanta wins across the two seasons, compared with 16 of 24 appearances overall. This season’s three winning totals were 213 against Green Bay, 147 against New Orleans and 122 against San Francisco. He cleared in five of seven games overall.
The San Francisco split explains why the combined market is useful. His 63 rushing yards would miss a 70+ rushing target, while 59 receiving yards carried his combined total comfortably past 100. The receiving component also supplied 82 yards alongside 93 rushing yards in last season’s 29–28 win over Tampa Bay.
DraftKings offered 110+ combined yards at −154 and the main over 117.5 at −114. Both covered nine of 11 wins; their overall counts were 15 and 14 of 24, respectively. Moving down to 100 retains last November’s New Orleans win, when 70 rushing yards and 37 receiving yards produced 107 combined. All three targets cleared in each current win, so the case for paying more at 100 comes from the older narrow example.
The remaining winning miss was also against New Orleans: 33 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards in the 19–17 victory on January 4, 2026. More recently, Robinson finished with 53 combined yards in the Chicago loss, including negative-eight receiving yards. Those yards stay in the total. Brian Robinson Jr. is ruled out with a hamstring injury, but that absence does not guarantee a particular carry or target count for Bijan.
Baker Mayfield: over 0.5 interceptions (−110)
Mayfield threw at least one interception in 10 of 12 Tampa Bay losses across the two seasons, compared with 11 of 21 passing appearances overall. That is 83.3% in losses. This season’s losing appearances are less decisive: he threw one interception against Cleveland and one against Minnesota, but none against Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati game is a clear counterexample to treating a Tampa Bay loss as sufficient. Mayfield threw for 216 yards on 28 attempts without an interception in the 33–27 defeat. Last season’s New England loss also came without one, despite 43 attempts and 273 passing yards.
There is opponent-specific support in the other direction. Mayfield threw one interception on 34 attempts for 277 yards in Atlanta’s 29–28 win last December. The current over asks for a single interception; it does not require the two that appeared in only two of the 12 losses. The separately offered under 0.5 at −116 covered two of 12 losses and 10 of 21 appearances overall.
His latest game was interception-free in Tampa Bay’s 43–13 win over Carolina, with 64 passing yards on just 11 attempts. That limited passing appearance remains in the record, and games in which he did not attempt a pass are not assigned to him. Emeka Egbuka is ruled out with a foot injury and Luke Goedeke is questionable with a calf injury. Those personnel issues matter to the offense, but they do not establish that Mayfield will turn the ball over.
Michael Penix Jr.: under 2.5 rushing yards (−103)
Penix finished with at most two rushing yards in five of six Atlanta wins across the two seasons, compared with seven of 14 rushing appearances overall. His three winning totals this season were negative-two yards against Green Bay, negative-two against New Orleans and negative-one against San Francisco. The under cleared in four of five appearances this season.
The latest win included five carries, yet the official rushing total was still negative-one yard. That is why a rushing-yard under should be judged separately from the number of carries. Those five carries produced a clear for the yardage under, even though an under on the number of attempts would have a different requirement.
The winning miss was six rushing yards on two carries in the 24–14 win over Buffalo last October. One modest gain can be enough to lose a line this low. This season, his eight yards on two carries in the Baltimore loss missed the under, while one yard on one carry in the Chicago loss cleared it.
The opposite over 2.5 rushing yards was −121 and cleared in one of six wins and seven of 14 appearances overall. Penix is expected to start. This under rests on the observed yardage pattern, including genuine negative totals, rather than an assumption that he cannot or will not run.
Ted Hurst III: 25+ receiving yards (−170)
Hurst reached 25 receiving yards in all five Tampa Bay losses in his six targeted appearances this season. The losing totals were 36 against Cincinnati, 27 against Cleveland, 40 against Minnesota, 25 against Green Bay and 40 against Pittsburgh. All five cleared this target; the Green Bay game landed exactly on it.
Dropping to 20+ at −235 covered the same five losses and five of six appearances overall. Moving up to 30+ at −126 reduced both counts to three: the Cleveland and Green Bay games fell short. The main over 31.5 at −109 also covered three of five losses and three of six appearances. The 25 milestone preserves two narrow examples at a heavier price than the main line.
The latest result was the miss: zero catches and zero receiving yards on one target in the Carolina win. It remains a genuine targeted appearance in the six-game baseline. The Dallas game, in which he received no target, is excluded from this receiving sample.
Hurst is listed in Tampa Bay’s receiving group, and Egbuka’s absence makes the distribution of opportunities especially relevant. It does not promise Hurst additional targets. This is the smallest sample on the table—six targeted NFL appearances, with only one in a win—so the perfect losing-game record offers little evidence about how durable the pattern will be.
Compare the paths before combining them
Robinson’s latest win illustrates the benefit of counting both rushing and receiving yards. Hurst’s 25-yard Green Bay result shows how little room a milestone can have, while Penix’s six-yard Buffalo win demonstrates the risk in a very low under. Use those actual margins alongside the prices and current team news. Atlanta’s offensive opportunities and Tampa Bay’s passing work are related within one game. If combining any options with Atlanta to win, use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote; these separate prices and records do not establish the combined price or probability.
Follow the Falcons–Buccaneers event page for the matchup, and explore more NFL analysis.
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