Montreal needed just two goals to beat Winnipeg the first time. Since then, the Jets have allowed 23 in four games, and the Canadiens have scored five in back-to-back wins. Montreal is a clear favorite Tuesday, but the key to the 5.5 total may be how much scoring Winnipeg can supply.
What Winnipeg can take from the first meeting
DraftKings had Montreal at −192 in its 9:17 a.m. ET snapshot. Our grades give the Canadiens the stronger attack, and Saturday’s 5–4 win over Pittsburgh showed their scoring depth. Josh Anderson had two goals and an assist, including a late deflection that gave Montreal a two-goal cushion. AP recap of Montreal’s win over Pittsburgh.
Winnipeg put 34 shots on Jacob Fowler in the first meeting. He stopped 33, and Stuart Skinner stopped 19 of 21 at the other end. That’s a useful reminder of how close the Jets can keep it. Our shot projections put each team around 26 this time, so Winnipeg may have to do more with fewer looks.
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Why Winnipeg’s goals matter at 5.5
The Jets scored two or fewer in three of their last four games. Carolina shut them out 7–0 on Sunday after scoring short-handed in the first and on the power play during its second-period surge. Skinner gave up five on 17 shots before being pulled. A game can clear 5.5 even when Winnipeg comes up empty, as that one showed. AP recap of Winnipeg’s game in Carolina.
Fowler has stopped 147 of 156 shots, about 94%, over his last five starts this season. Both goalies were unconfirmed for Tuesday. Winnipeg managed four against Tampa Bay during this stretch, and Montreal conceded two to Dallas and four to Pittsburgh in its last two wins. If the Jets finish a few of their chances, Montreal has less of the scoring to do on its own.
Watch Winnipeg’s first power play and the shifts right after it. Carolina’s short-handed opener showed how quickly those minutes can turn against the Jets. If Winnipeg uses the extra skater to create good looks, it has a better chance to stay close and contribute to the total.
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