Washington had scored at least four in five of six games before Minnesota held it to one on Sunday. Dallas gives the Capitals another tough defensive matchup Tuesday, especially if they need the power play to get going. With the moneylines nearly even, what Washington can create at even strength could matter as much as how often it gets the puck to the net.
Washington has the shot edge, Dallas has the stronger defensive grade
DraftKings had Washington at −112 and Dallas at −108 in its 9:15 a.m. ET snapshot. We give the Capitals the slightly stronger attacking grade and our shot projections put Washington at about 28 to Dallas’ 25. The Stars get the better defensive grade in the matchup with Jake Oettinger and Logan Thompson. That’s a reason to pay attention to where Washington gets those extra shots. In the 5–1 loss to Minnesota, Justin Sourdif scored on a deflection and the Capitals had other chances close to the net, including a slot look for Alex Ovechkin that Jesper Wallstedt stopped. AP recap of Washington’s loss to Minnesota.
Dallas also has a way to make a short stretch count. Wyatt Johnston found Mikko Rantanen across the crease to open the scoring on the power play in Saturday’s 3–1 win over Columbus. The Stars killed Columbus’ only power play, extending their streak to 28 straight successful kills. That gives Dallas a way to win the special-teams minutes even with Washington holding the projected shot edge. AP recap of Dallas’ win over Columbus.
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How the two teams have been getting to 5.5
Washington’s last seven games all reached six combined goals, though Sunday took a late Minnesota burst to get there. The game was 2–1 until Minnesota scored three times in the final 2:23. Dallas has played seven games with five or fewer combined goals in its last ten, including Saturday’s win. At DraftKings’ 5.5, Washington’s recent scoring gives the game a route to a higher total, particularly if Dallas has to chase and gets chances like the one Johnston created for Rantanen.
In the last five starts for each goalie, Oettinger allowed two or fewer three times and Thompson did it twice. Both were unconfirmed for Tuesday. The question is whether Washington can get enough shots through traffic or create deflections like Sourdif’s before Dallas can settle in. If it can, the extra shot volume has more weight in a near-even matchup. If Dallas keeps those looks scarce and holds up on the penalty kill, Washington may have to win with fewer goals than it scored during its recent run.
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