Ohio State got all the way to the USC 1-yard line last Saturday and came away with a field goal. By the end of the night, the Buckeyes had 464 yards and just 18 points. Oregon brings a different kind of problem to Columbus. The Ducks can force Ohio State to put together a long drive, then make up the difference with one throw.
The Buckeyes can get there. What happens at the goal line?
Bo Jackson ran for 121 yards and Luke Fahey threw for 260 in his first career start, but the Buckeyes kicked three field goals on their first five possessions at USC. Their first touchdown didn’t come until the final three minutes. There was plenty there for Ohio State to build on between the 20s. It just had to do too much of that work again after settling for three.
We project about 23 first downs for Ohio State and 16 for Oregon. That gives the Buckeyes a route to controlling the game even if the Ducks land a big play. It also explains why the finish matters so much at DraftKings’ 7.5-point spread. Jackson gives Ohio State a way to finish those longer possessions on the ground. If Oregon gets the stop when the field shrinks, the Buckeyes can do most of the moving and still leave the Ducks within a score.
Oregon can get back into a game in a hurry
The Ducks trailed Northwestern 20–13 at halftime and won 34–26. Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yarder to Dakorien Moore. Brandon Smith supplied the go-ahead score from the 2 on fourth down. Oregon’s comeback had both things Ohio State needed more of at USC: a touchdown at the end of a short-yardage play and another that barely needed a drive.
Oregon also held Northwestern to two field goals after halftime. That’s the counterweight to Ohio State’s first-down edge. The Ducks have a plausible way to stay close even if they spend more time on defense, provided those stands leave Raiola a manageable gap to close.
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Yards can pile up without the score doing the same
The total is 46.5. Oregon’s win over Northwestern was its first game in four to finish above 32 combined points. That swing makes more sense when you look at how the Ducks scored. A long pass can put points on the board before either offense has found a rhythm. Longer drives that end in kicks can make a game look busy without putting the same pressure on the total.
Ohio State’s path to a comfortable lead starts with giving Jackson chances to turn those first downs into touchdowns. Oregon’s answer is to make the Buckeyes go the length of the field again after each stop and keep Moore in position to erase some of that work with a single catch. Ohio State can control the afternoon between the 20s and still give Oregon a game in the fourth quarter. The biggest difference is what the Buckeyes do when they get close.
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