Ole Miss was up by two late in the third quarter against Auburn before Trinidad Chambliss broke loose for a touchdown. The Rebels kept extending drives and won 45–15. Georgia brings a defense that can get off the field and a running game that can make Ole Miss wait for its next chance.
How Ole Miss can keep Georgia within reach
The Rebels went 13-for-16 on third down against Auburn. Chambliss threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, and his 26-yard scoring run gave Ole Miss a nine-point cushion late in the third quarter. The Rebels added three touchdowns in the fourth.
Our passing projections have Ole Miss throwing about 42 passes for 287 yards, compared with about 28 attempts for 206 yards for Georgia. There’s room for the Rebels to move the ball through the air even against our higher-graded defense, but all that passing volume leaves plenty riding on whether completions extend drives. DraftKings has Georgia favored by 3.5. If the Rebels can turn those third-down conversions into touchdowns, they can keep Georgia from pulling away even if the Bulldogs are having success on the ground.
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What Georgia can do with a stop
Georgia outrushed Florida 217–48 in its 27–8 win, and the defense took the ball away four times. One takeaway went straight on the scoreboard when Chris Cole returned a fumble 66 yards for a touchdown. We project about 175 rushing yards for Georgia against Ole Miss. If the Bulldogs can sustain drives on the ground after forcing a punt, they can put pressure on the Rebels without relying on another defensive score.
That distinction matters at DraftKings’ 56.5 total. Ole Miss showed against Auburn how a few extended drives can turn into a flurry of touchdowns once Chambliss starts breaking plays. Georgia showed against Florida that takeaways can widen the margin while keeping the opponent’s scoring down. Short fields can push the scoring up, especially if both teams are finishing drives. If Georgia follows its stops with long drives that end in kicks, the clock can run down without many points to show for it.
Watch where Ole Miss faces third down and what happens after it converts. If Chambliss keeps getting manageable chances and the Rebels finish drives, Georgia’s ground game has less room to dictate the night. If the Bulldogs start getting off the field and following those stops with productive runs, Ole Miss could need bigger plays on fewer drives to stay close.
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