Houston needed 15 plays to go 75 yards for a touchdown against Utah. A week later, Cincinnati went 63 yards against the same defense in one pass and came away empty. Those drives capture what makes Saturday’s matchup interesting. Houston has a way to keep the ball, and Cincinnati has a way to make up ground in a hurry. The difference could be what each team does once it gets close.
Houston has a way to keep drives going
That touchdown drive at Utah ate up 8:14 to open the second half. But Houston also came up empty on an early fourth-and-goal, and Conner Weigman threw four straight incompletions after getting the Cougars to the Utah 23 on their last possession. He threw for 282 yards in the 21–13 loss.
Our team projections give Houston about 211 rushing yards and 26 first downs, compared with roughly 163 yards and 17 first downs for Cincinnati. That gives Houston a path to long possessions. At the Nov. 4 evening snapshot, DraftKings made Houston a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 62.5. At that spread, a long drive that ends in a field goal still leaves Cincinnati room to stay close with one quick touchdown.
Cincinnati can close the gap in a hurry
In the Bearcats’ 49–25 loss to Utah, Malachi Henry’s 63-yard catch set up first-and-goal before a holding penalty and a sack pushed Cincinnati back. The Bearcats missed the field goal, but Cole Tabb showed what a big play can be worth when he scored on a 48-yard run. If Cincinnati finishes a drive that quickly on Saturday, Houston can spend much of a quarter with the ball and still have a close game on its hands.
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What to watch at 62.5
Six of Cincinnati’s eight games have gone over their own totals. Its game against Utah reached 74 points with help from two Utah defensive touchdowns. Houston’s game against the Utes ended at 34, with two deep Houston trips yielding no points. The more telling clue on Saturday may be how the first few scoring chances end. If Houston uses up clock and settles for field goals, there’s less time for both teams to get to 63 combined points. If Cincinnati hits an early touchdown, Houston has more reason to keep pressing for seven on its next drive.
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