Pittsburgh had a late two-man advantage against Vegas and a chance to take control. The Penguins went without a goal, took a penalty soon afterward and lost on a power-play winner with 32 seconds left. Boston arrives having scored a power-play goal in its own win over Vegas. With Thursday’s matchup priced almost evenly, a few minutes with an extra skater could make the difference.
Pittsburgh had its chance
Tommy Novak and Rickard Rakell turned a one-goal deficit into a third-period lead in Pittsburgh’s 3–2 loss to Vegas. Novak scored and had an assist, while Rakell scored for a fourth straight game. After Vegas tied it, the Penguins let a late five-on-three slip away. Novak’s tripping penalty then gave Vegas the opening for its winner.
Our team projections give each team about three power-play opportunities, with Pittsburgh holding a small shot-volume edge at about 29 to Boston’s 27. The Penguins still have to make those chances count after seven losses in nine games. At Thursday morning’s snapshot, DraftKings priced Pittsburgh at -112 and Boston at -108. That narrow gap leaves little room to assume Boston’s stronger record settles the matchup.
Boston has shown what one power play can do
Morgan Geekie’s power-play goal helped Boston build a 2–0 lead in its 3–2 shootout win over Vegas. The Bruins gave that lead back, then needed Jeremy Swayman to stop all three Vegas shootout attempts before David Pastrnak supplied the winner. Boston got a result from a close game. Pittsburgh’s next meeting with Vegas showed how easily a late penalty can send one the other way.
Evgeni Malkin’s availability is another part of the picture. Wednesday’s update, citing NHL.com’s Wes Crosby, said he took contact in practice after a lower-body injury and might play against Boston. His return remains unconfirmed. He missed the Vegas game, so a return would give Pittsburgh another attacking option as it tries to make more of its opportunities.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Bruins vs. Penguins picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
What could change the scoring at 6.5?
Both teams’ latest games finished below Thursday’s 6.5 total. The recent goalie samples give a reason to keep watching how the chances develop. Jeremy Swayman and Arturs Silovs are listed as possible starters, with neither confirmed. Across their last five appearances, Swayman stopped 87.8% of the shots he faced and Silovs stopped 89.9%. If they start, those five-game figures offer a counterweight to expecting another low-scoring night.
Pittsburgh’s small projected shot edge says little about how difficult those saves will be. The more useful thing to watch is whether its power plays force the goalie to move and produce chances near the net. A converted advantage can change both a close moneyline game and the scoring pace. An empty power play followed by a penalty, as Pittsburgh just experienced, hands that opportunity straight to Boston.
We break down every matchup
Find current odds and model projections for the rest of Thursday’s games on the NHL betting board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.