Carolina put 30 shots on net in Nashville and scored once. At the other end, two cross-ice passes helped the Predators build a lead they never gave back. The Islanders had an even harder time generating offense in their latest game, managing 18 shots in a shutout loss to Edmonton. Thursday’s matchup turns on whether New York can create the dangerous chances that hurt Carolina without needing to match its shot count.
Carolina’s shot edge needs better protection
Nashville’s opening goal began when Filip Forsberg took the puck from Sean Walker and passed across the ice to Nick Perbix. Forsberg later found Roman Josi on the other side for a tap-in. Jackson Blake cut the lead to one with a rebound finish, but Carolina lost 4–1, ending a four-game winning streak. Blake extended his point streak to seven games.
Our shot projections give the Hurricanes about 32 to the Islanders’ 27. That offers Carolina more chances to find a goal, but its latest game showed how a few costly moments can outweigh that volume. At Thursday morning’s snapshot, DraftKings had Carolina at -175 and New York at +145. For the Islanders, finding a cross-ice opening or a second chance like Blake’s could be a way to challenge the favorite even if they spend less time shooting.
The Islanders need to make Carolina move
Edmonton held New York to 18 shots in Saturday’s 4–0 win. The AP account described close-range finishes set up by passes that left Ilya Sorokin with little chance. Five Islanders minor penalties added to their problems. New York needs to spend more of Thursday creating those difficult saves at the other end.
Pyotr Kochetkov and Ilya Sorokin are listed as possible starters for Carolina and New York, respectively, with neither confirmed. Kochetkov stopped 94.6% of shots across his last five appearances, with two shutouts in that stretch. Sorokin stopped 88.6% across his last five. If Kochetkov starts, New York will face a goalie in strong recent form. Getting him moving before the shot arrives would give the Islanders a better test than another quiet night of limited chances.
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New York’s attack matters at 5.5
Carolina’s latest loss stayed at five combined goals despite the Hurricanes’ 30 shots and a late empty-netter. An Islanders team that struggles to create chances could leave most of Thursday’s scoring work to Carolina. If New York can turn a takeaway into an open look instead, it can change both the 5.5 total’s outlook and which team has to chase.
Watch the chances Carolina allows after losing the puck. Its projected shot advantage gives the favorite more opportunities to keep attacking, and Blake has been finding ways to contribute. The Islanders’ counter is to make the next pass force the goalie across his crease. Nashville found those openings while taking fewer shots. Reproducing that part of the game would give New York a much clearer route to an upset than its 18-shot outing against Edmonton.
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