Utah and Ottawa have identical 10–6–1 records, but their latest games show very different routes to a result. Logan Cooley’s hat trick wasn’t enough to keep the Mammoth from losing 5–4 in overtime at Montreal. The Senators needed only two goals to beat Buffalo, with a late three-on-two break supplying the winner. With the moneyline nearly level, the useful question is whether Utah can make its offense hold up against Ottawa’s recent ability to win a tighter game.
Utah had the goals, but couldn’t close
Cooley scored three times and added an assist against Montreal, while Nick Schmaltz had a goal and two assists. According to AP’s report on ESPN, the Canadiens tied the game with 5:06 left in regulation and won 30 seconds into overtime. Sebastian Cossa made 30 saves for Utah.
That loss followed a 3–2 win in Toronto and a 6–3 defeat at Philadelphia. Utah has won five of its last 10 games, with some productive nights still ending in losses. Even Cooley’s three goals needed more defensive help to become a win.
DraftKings lists Utah at -115 on the moneyline and Ottawa at -105. Our team grades give the Mammoth a B on both offense and defense, compared with B− in each category for the Senators. That modest grade advantage is one part of Utah’s case. Ottawa has also won five of its last 10, leaving the recent win counts as close as the prices.
Ottawa found the right chance late
Michael Amadio scored with 3:09 remaining in Ottawa’s 2–1 victory at Buffalo, finishing a three-on-two break with assists from Fabian Zetterlund and Tim Stutzle, as AP reported via ESPN. Shane Pinto had scored the equalizer in the second period.
The Senators didn’t need a sustained scoring surge to finish that game. They kept the deficit manageable and converted the late opening. It was a useful response after a 6–3 loss at Anaheim, and a reminder that Ottawa’s ability to stay close gives a single good chance much more value.
Ridly Greig was ruled out for Saturday with a lower-body injury. Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve and isn’t expected back for this game, according to Friday’s reports citing TSN 1200 Ottawa. Samuel Ersson is the projected starter in net, but he has not been confirmed.
Our goalie logs put Ersson at a .917 save percentage over his latest five appearances, including three starts and two relief outings. In his latest two starts, he allowed one goal each against San Jose and Buffalo. That recent work gives Ottawa a counterweight to Utah’s higher offensive grade, with the relief appearances making the five-game sample less uniform than five full starts.
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The 6.5 total depends on more than equal shot volume
Eleven of Utah’s 17 games this season have gone over their posted totals, while 10 of Ottawa’s 17 have gone under. Those opposing season patterns fit the different latest results. At Saturday’s 6.5-goal line, the tension is between Utah’s games more often becoming open contests and Ottawa more often keeping the scoring down.
Karel Vejmelka is Utah’s unconfirmed projected starter. In his latest appearance, at Philadelphia, he allowed five goals on 20 shots. He didn’t play in the Montreal loss, which came with Cossa in net. If Vejmelka starts, Utah will need a steadier performance than his last outing; the four-goal Montreal loss describes a different goalie’s night.
Our projections put both teams around 28 shots. With little separation in expected volume, the quality of the openings and the finishing become more useful distinctions. The late opportunities in their previous games make that distinction concrete: Montreal found an equalizer and an overtime finish against Utah, while Ottawa converted a three-on-two to decide a tight contest.
Utah’s modest grade advantage will matter more if it can protect what its attack creates. Ottawa’s latest win showed the other route: stay close, then make a late opening count. Neither team has separated itself through recent win totals, so the more revealing test is which defense gives its offense a manageable game to finish.
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