New Jersey has scored 19 goals during a four-game winning streak. Toronto has managed two in each of its last two games, both losses. That contrast makes the Maple Leafs’ first task clear: find enough offense to avoid spending another night chasing. The Devils have been winning high-scoring games, but their latest results also leave Toronto a route into this matchup if it can turn its own attacks into more than a brief response.
The Devils have an answer when games open up
New Jersey’s 5-4 overtime win over the Islanders required a third-period comeback from two goals down. AP reported that Luke Evangelista started the recovery and Dougie Hamilton tied it on a power play before Jack Hughes won it on a two-on-one in overtime.
That was the Devils’ second straight 5-4 victory, following a 4-3 win over Edmonton and a 5-2 win at Vegas. They’ve had enough scoring to win several kinds of finish, but the latest three opponents have scored four, four and three goals. There have been chances for opponents even while New Jersey keeps finding a way to win.
Our team grades still favor the Devils’ balance: B on defense and B- on offense, compared with Toronto’s C defense and C+ offense. Those grades strengthen the Devils’ case, but the recent goals allowed keep Toronto’s scoring response central to the matchup.
Toronto needs to respond earlier
The Maple Leafs lost 4-2 to Montreal after falling behind 3-0. AP reported that turnovers by Gavin McKenna helped start two Montreal scoring sequences. William Nylander and McKenna brought Toronto within one in the third period, but the Canadiens answered on a power play.
That sequence puts the emphasis on cleaner possession as well as finishing. Toronto can’t count on a late burst to repair every mistake against a team that has been scoring this freely. Getting an attack established before the score forces the issue would change the shape of the game.
The Leafs’ recent history includes a 7-2 win at Edmonton and a 6-2 win at Columbus, so the current scoring trouble isn’t the only version of this team. Those big wins came earlier in Toronto’s last ten games, though. Toronto has lost four of its last five, including the two most recent games at home.
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The total brings two recent patterns together
DraftKings’ moneyline prices put New Jersey at -155 and Toronto at +130. The Devils’ 12-5 record and current scoring run support their favorite’s position; Toronto’s counterargument is the chance to attack a visitor that has conceded at least three in each of its latest three games.
The total is 6.5. New Jersey has six straight overs against its past posted totals, while Toronto has three straight unders. Neither streak has a push. New Jersey’s streak includes games priced at 5.5 and 6.5, while Toronto’s three unders all came at 6.5. The teams arrive at this number with different recent scoring stories. New Jersey has repeatedly done much of the scoring itself; Toronto’s latest two losses came with only two goals from the Leafs.
The projected goalie matchup is Connor Hellebuyck against Anthony Stolarz, with neither confirmed. Hellebuyck’s four-start sample for New Jersey produced a .891 save percentage. Stolarz’s last five starts for Toronto produced .901, though his latest appearance was October 31. Jake Allen played for New Jersey on Saturday and Sergei Bobrovsky played for Toronto. Sunday’s projected matchup would therefore bring a different goalie into each net.
Both teams played Saturday. The useful question is whether Toronto can create a sustained response without turning loose possessions into chances for New Jersey.
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