Vancouver has scored exactly twice in seven of its last ten games, so three goals could go a long way for Philadelphia. The Flyers scored three in Calgary on Sunday and still lost after giving up the tying goal on their own power play. Against a team that’s had trouble scoring, how Philadelphia handles the puck with a lead may matter as much as how it gets one.
Why the Flyers are favored
DraftKings had Philadelphia at −135 on the moneyline Monday morning. Vancouver has lost five straight and allowed at least three goals in each of its last ten games. That gives the Flyers an opening, though they scored twice in each of their two games before Calgary. Both offenses earn a D− in our grades.
Three different Flyers scored in Sunday’s 4–3 overtime loss to Calgary, but Joel Farabee tied it on a short-handed breakaway in the third. Philadelphia grades C on defense to Vancouver’s D+. That edge matters most if the Flyers make the Canucks work through a set defense.
Vancouver stayed close enough for Brock Boeser to cut the deficit to one late in its 4–2 loss to Edmonton. The Oilers had broken the tie early in the third and added a power-play goal, yet they still needed an empty-netter to restore the two-goal margin. That’s the danger for Philadelphia if it gets ahead and stops adding to its lead.
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Vancouver’s two-goal games can go either way
Five of each team’s last ten games finished above Monday’s 6.5. Vancouver scored twice in a game that reached eight goals against Winnipeg and twice in one that finished at five against San Jose. If the Canucks are held to two again, how much Philadelphia can get past Vancouver’s defense matters more than the Canucks’ recent scoring pattern on its own.
Joseph Woll and Leevi Merilainen were listed as possible starters. Across their last five appearances for their current teams this season, Woll had an .881 save percentage for Philadelphia and Merilainen was at .848 for Vancouver. If they start, watch whether either defense is giving up breakaways or passes across the slot. A handful of those chances can change the score even when the shot count stays low.
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