Georgia scored four touchdowns in the first 22 minutes at Ole Miss. Missouri led Texas in the third quarter, then punted twice in a row and threw a late interception. Those two games point to the same question in Athens. Can Missouri keep Jamal Roberts involved long enough to make Georgia defend a full drive, or will Austin Simmons have to spend the afternoon throwing his way out of long downs?
Missouri needs more than one big play
Naeshaun Montgomery spun out of a tackle and stayed in bounds for a 75-yard touchdown that put Missouri ahead of Texas. Simmons threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns, but Roberts finished with 66 rushing yards. When Missouri got the ball near midfield late with a chance to answer the go-ahead score, a short run and an incompletion set up the third-down pass Texas tipped and intercepted. Roberts doesn’t need to break a long run to help in Athens. A few productive first-down carries would give Simmons a chance to get the ball to Montgomery or Cayden Lee before Georgia can rush him on an obvious passing down.
Georgia can score from either end of the field
The Bulldogs’ first four touchdown drives covered 72, 96, 61 and 50 yards in their 42–7 win at Ole Miss. Nate Frazier ran for 107 yards, and Gunner Stockton threw touchdown passes of 65 yards to Talyn Taylor and 58 to Ethan Barbour. Ole Miss crossed midfield only once in the opening 22 minutes and gave up five sacks over the game. Missouri can’t count on field position alone to slow Georgia down. It needs some early stops and enough first downs of its own to keep Stockton from getting another series right away.
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What Georgia needs to pull away
DraftKings has Georgia as a 15.5-point favorite. Georgia can win by leaning on Frazier and making Missouri play from behind. Covering calls for more separation than that alone guarantees. We project about 180 Georgia rushing yards and 134 for Missouri. If Roberts helps Missouri sustain drives, the Tigers can take possessions away from Georgia and keep the margin manageable. If Georgia stuffs the run early and creates more third-and-long snaps, it has a better chance to add to its lead before Missouri can answer.
The total depends on what Missouri can add
DraftKings set the total at 47.5. Our game logs show that Georgia’s last two wins produced 49 and 35 combined points, even though the Bulldogs held Ole Miss and Florida to seven and eight, respectively. Against Ole Miss, Georgia got there with six touchdowns. Against Florida, a similarly strong defensive result left the combined score well short of this week’s number. If Georgia’s drives take time and Missouri comes away with field goals or punts, the Bulldogs can control the game without scoring at last week’s pace. A quick Missouri touchdown like Montgomery’s would put far more pressure on the total than a long drive that ends in three.
Watch what Roberts gets on first down in the opening quarter. If Georgia keeps leaving Simmons with long thirds, the next thing to watch is whether the Bulldogs turn those stops into touchdowns or use up clock on longer drives.
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