BYU reached the Utah 2 with a chance to close an eight-point gap, then threw an interception. Baylor erased a 10-point deficit against Iowa State with four straight touchdowns, starting with a 54-yard DJ Lagway run. In Provo, the Cougars may have to finish several long drives to build a lead that can survive one or two big plays from Lagway.
Baylor can score before the defense gets another chance
Lagway ran for 119 yards and threw for 229 in Baylor’s 42–31 win over Iowa State. His 54-yard run cut into the deficit, and his 62-yard touchdown pass to Taz Williams Jr. helped stretch the lead after halftime. Iowa State also got 182 rushing yards from Aiden Flora, including a 40-yard touchdown. That gives BYU a reason to keep handing the ball to LJ Martin even if Lagway scores early. A productive run game lets the Cougars answer without having to force throws into the end zone.
BYU moved the ball but left points on the field
Bear Bachmeier hit Legend Glasker for a 75-yard touchdown, and Martin’s four-yard run put BYU up 20–14 before halftime in its 28–20 loss at Utah. The Cougars never scored again. Bachmeier threw four interceptions, including two in the end zone in the fourth quarter. The defense helped erase an early 14-point deficit by recovering two fumbles in the second quarter. Against Baylor, those stops will be worth more if the offense can come away with points and make Lagway chase the lead.
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The spread asks BYU for more than a one-score win
DraftKings makes BYU a 7.5-point favorite. We project about 152 rushing yards for BYU and 114 for Baylor. BYU has a path to winning if Martin’s runs keep Bachmeier in manageable downs and the Cougars protect the ball near the goal line. To cover, they also have to keep Lagway’s big plays from undoing those drives. Baylor showed last week how quickly one missed tackle can wipe out much of a lead.
Finishing drives matters more than yardage at 48.5
DraftKings set the total at 48.5, half a point above the combined score in BYU’s loss to Utah. Our game logs show BYU and Baylor took different routes against Iowa State. BYU won 24–10 in October, while Baylor’s win reached 73 combined points. If the Cougars limit Lagway’s long gains, Baylor will have to put together more plays to score. If BYU converts the drives it wasted against Utah and Baylor gets a quick touchdown or two, the teams can reach 49 even with some long possessions.
Watch what BYU calls on its first trip inside the 20. If Martin keeps the Cougars ahead of the chains there, Bachmeier has more options on third down and fewer reasons to throw into tight coverage.
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