Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards against Alabama and LSU scored 13 points. Texas spent the fourth quarter at Missouri showing how quickly a stop can become a touchdown at the other end. The Tigers can move the ball through the air. The question in Baton Rouge is whether they can finish those drives before Arch Manning and Raleek Brown get a chance to make the missed points matter.
Texas turned late stops into separation
Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in the 34–20 win at Missouri. Texas forced consecutive punts after tying the game, then Manning found Brown down the sideline out of the backfield for the go-ahead touchdown. When Missouri tried to answer, Graceson Littleton intercepted a tipped pass and Brown ran in the clincher. LSU has to account for Brown even when he starts behind Manning, especially if Texas gets the ball back with a short field.
LSU got deep into Alabama territory and left without points
Leavitt completed 35 of 47 passes in the 31–13 loss to Alabama. Dilin Jones capped a 90-yard drive with a five-yard touchdown run, but LSU went 0-for-4 on fourth down. Alabama broke up a pass on fourth-and-4 at its 10 and intercepted Leavitt at its 24. LSU can give Texas more to defend if it gets to third down with the run still available. That would give Leavitt more ways to keep a drive alive once the field gets short.
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Why LSU needs more than a late field goal
DraftKings makes LSU a four-point favorite. We project 21 first downs for LSU and about 17 for Texas, which gives the Tigers a path to more sustained drives. Turning that into a margin takes touchdowns. If LSU has to settle for kicks, Texas can erase several productive LSU possessions with a touchdown of its own. Brown’s late score at Missouri is a reminder that LSU’s linebackers have to track him through the whole play.
What gets the game to 47 points
DraftKings set the total at 46.5. In our game logs, Texas scored at least 31 in each of its last three games, but those games finished with 54, 34 and 61 combined points. Mississippi State managed three points in the lowest-scoring one. LSU and Alabama reached 44 despite all that passing yardage from Leavitt. If LSU turns more of its scoring chances into touchdowns and Texas keeps scoring as it has lately, the total is within reach. If LSU’s drives keep ending on downs, the yards can pile up again while the points lag.
Watch LSU’s first trip inside the Texas 20. If Jones is still a threat to run on third down, Leavitt has more room to work. If Texas gets the Tigers into fourth and long, watch how quickly Manning goes looking for Brown on the next possession.
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