Northern Arizona couldn’t keep Arizona away from the basket, surrendering a 52-20 deficit in paint scoring in Tuesday’s 90-59 loss. Kentucky now gets its chance to attack that weakness after a rough night of its own against Kansas. The question isn’t just whether the Wildcats can respond. It’s whether they can turn an inside advantage into sustained separation while keeping the Lumberjacks’ shooters from answering at the other end.
Northern Arizona needs its guards to keep the floor open
The Lumberjacks have started with road losses at UNLV, New Mexico and Arizona, scoring 77, 65 and 59 points. Those games show two different versions of this offense: one that can contribute enough scoring to stay involved, and another that struggles to find an answer when an opponent takes control. At Arizona, Northern Arizona went scoreless over the final 3:21 of the first half and trailed by 24 at the break.
Chris Komin gives the Lumberjacks a starting point. He scored 17 against Arizona and enters this matchup averaging 20.7 points through three games. Ryan Abelman offers a way to punish a defense that crowds Komin: he’s made 10 threes at a 40% clip. Kentucky can’t treat every possession as an invitation to collapse toward the ball. Clean kick-out opportunities would give Northern Arizona a way to interrupt a run. ([nauathletics.com](https://nauathletics.com/news/2026/11/12/mens-basketball-mens-hoops-concludes-season-opening-road-stretch-with-no-24-rv-kentucky-in-rupp-arena.aspx))
The harder problem is at the other end. Arizona shot 62% and collected 26 assists on 37 made baskets as Northern Arizona tried to contain its interior attack. Sending extra help wasn’t enough; the ball kept finding an open teammate. Against Kentucky, the Lumberjacks need the first defender to hold up better so that protecting the rim doesn’t repeatedly leave somebody else free.
Kentucky has an inside route, but needs more help
Kentucky’s 89-69 loss to Kansas wasn’t short on individual production. Zoom Diallo scored 24 on 10-of-15 shooting, and Malachi Moreno supplied 19 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. But Kansas seized control with an early 9-0 run and later stretched the lead with a 12-0 burst. Kentucky needs more than two productive players if it’s going to dictate this game for long stretches.
Milan Momcilovic is one place to look for a response after he scored five points on 2-for-7 shooting against Kansas. If Moreno draws help inside, finding Momcilovic or another open teammate would make Northern Arizona defend the full possession rather than just the first touch. Moreno also enters averaging four offensive rebounds per game, giving Kentucky another route to pressure the basket when the initial shot misses. ([nauathletics.com](https://nauathletics.com/news/2026/11/12/mens-basketball-mens-hoops-concludes-season-opening-road-stretch-with-no-24-rv-kentucky-in-rupp-arena.aspx))
We project 40.1 rebounds and 18.5 assists for Kentucky, compared with 26.7 rebounds and 11.4 assists for Northern Arizona. That points toward an advantage in recovering misses and moving the ball. It doesn’t guarantee easy baskets, but it gives us something concrete to watch: can Kentucky turn those extra opportunities into good shots rather than simply collecting possessions?
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The spread asks Kentucky to sustain its advantage
DraftKings lists Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite, with the total at 155.5. The favorite’s case starts with Northern Arizona’s difficulty defending the paint and Kentucky’s opportunity to create second chances. That price becomes more appealing if the Wildcats pair those advantages with stops, preventing Komin and Abelman from answering baskets with baskets.
There’s a difference between controlling this matchup and creating enough separation for that number. Kentucky has failed to cover in all three games this season, including home wins by 28 over Manhattan and nine over James Madison. Northern Arizona, meanwhile, covered in two of its three losses, including the Arizona game. Those results don’t settle this matchup, but they show why a bounce-back win alone isn’t a strong enough reason to take the favorite. If Kentucky keeps trading scores or needs repeated individual rescue plays, passing on the large number makes more sense than relying on the talent gap.
The total turns on what Northern Arizona contributes
The same interior weakness has a different meaning for the total: efficient Kentucky possessions could lift scoring even if the game isn’t competitive. Offensive rebounds could add attempts, while successful passes out of the paint could create open threes. But Northern Arizona still has to contribute. Its Arizona game finished with 149 points despite the home team’s hot shooting; a struggling offense can hold down the combined score even when its defense is being beaten.
The Lumberjacks’ other two games finished with 159 and 166 points. That makes their ability to keep scoring—not just Kentucky’s ability to attack—the key to evaluating this threshold. The over case strengthens if Komin can create openings and Abelman gets clean catches beyond the arc. The under case strengthens if Kentucky ends possessions with defensive rebounds and makes Northern Arizona work deep into the shot clock. We wouldn’t treat a likely one-sided game as an automatic argument for either direction.
Watch the help defense, then the next shot
Watch what happens when Moreno gets the ball inside: does Northern Arizona hold its position, send help and recover, or give Kentucky an open shot somewhere else? Then watch whether Komin and Abelman can answer. Those exchanges will tell us more than the first quick run. Visit the men’s college basketball betting board to compare this demanding favorite’s number and scoring threshold with the rest of the slate.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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